Global consumer confidence is down only -.2pts since the Iran conflict started, but America’s global reputation has declined -1.2pts. We expect both metrics are likely to deteriorate further as the conflict widens and energy prices spike.
U.S. brands should prepare for heightened fallout in Europe and in MENA+ markets beyond Iran’s closest neighbors: European consumers are showing the largest weekly hit to consumer confidence (-2pts WoW) amid concern over rising gas prices, while views of America have worsened sharply in countries outside the Gulf with large Muslim populations.
See the table below for expanded MENA coverage drawn from our daily tracking data followed by additional analysis of country and regional trends.
|
MORNING CONSULT GLOBAL OUTLOOK (3/5/26) |
||||
|
Market |
Consumer Sentiment |
WoW (+/-) |
U.S. Reputation |
Outlook |
|
Global Avg. |
103.4 |
-.2 |
-1.2 |
Negative |
|
Americas |
||||
|
U.S. |
94.2 |
0.1 |
-- |
Positive |
|
Brazil |
120.8 |
3.5 |
0.2 |
Positive |
|
Canada |
76.4 |
-1.1 |
-6.5 |
Negative |
|
Mexico |
110.5 |
2.3 |
6.5 |
Positive |
|
MENA+ |
||||
|
Algeria |
125.5 |
-8.4 |
-1.8 |
Negative |
|
Egypt |
122.5 |
-1.5 |
5.3 |
Neutral |
|
Indonesia |
122.7 |
1.5 |
-5.8 |
Neutral |
|
Israel |
125 |
15.3 |
1.3 |
Positive |
|
Malaysia |
122 |
-1.7 |
-7.4 |
Negative |
|
Morocco |
123.3 |
-5.4 |
-5.1 |
Negative |
|
Pakistan |
113 |
-.1 |
-7.8 |
Negative |
|
Saudi Arabia |
156.6 |
0.1 |
-3.4 |
Neutral |
|
Turkey |
63 |
-1.5 |
-3 |
Negative |
|
UAE |
151.7 |
.5 |
-5.7 |
Neutral |
|
EUROPE |
||||
|
France |
63.4 |
0 |
-1.5 |
Neutral |
|
Germany |
70.1 |
1.6 |
4.7 |
Positive |
|
Italy |
74.6 |
-4.9 |
0.5 |
Neutral |
|
Netherlands |
80.1 |
-9.7 |
-7.3 |
Negative |
|
Poland |
84.9 |
1.3 |
2.1 |
Positive |
|
Spain |
81 |
-2.6 |
-2.1 |
Negative |
|
U.K. |
73.4 |
0.1 |
1.8 |
Positive |
|
APAC |
||||
|
Australia |
78.2 |
-2.4 |
-0.5 |
Negative |
|
China |
153.1 |
8.6 |
0.8 |
Positive |
|
India |
135.8 |
0 |
2.4 |
Neutral |
|
Japan |
70 |
-2.8 |
-4.9 |
Negative |
|
S. Korea |
96.7 |
1.7 |
3 |
Positive |
Anti-Americanism Rising Across MENA+ and Beyond
“Brand USA” is deteriorating in all regions, not just in the Middle East.
To date, the reputational damage has actually been less pronounced in the Gulf, where Iran is hardly beloved by its closest neighbors. Instead, the hit to “brand USA” has been most prominent in Muslim-majority countries that are further afield (Indonesia, Malaysia and Pakistan) where our data shows views of Iran have been rosier compared with countries in the immediate region (e.g. Saudi Arabia, UAE).
For executives wondering if this week’s downturn is due to the Iran conflict or the Trump administration’s new 10% global tariffs, our data suggests the strikes are having an independent impact, and in different places. While “brand USA” took a slight hit following the IEEPA ruling and Trump’s immediate threat of replacement tariffs, regional trends were inconsistent. By contrast, our data shows relatively clear downtrends in all regions from the date of the Iran strikes onwards.
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