Trump and Clinton are Expected to Win the Iowa Caucuses

The Iowa Caucuses are all about gaining momentum for the long primary fight ahead. In the weekend before the first-in-the-nation caucuses, voters expect Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, the two candidates who have led national polls for months in their respective parties, will walk away victorious on Monday night. Nearly half of all registered voters, 48 percent, expect Trump to get the top spot in the Iowa primary. The same number, 48 percent, say Clinton will beat Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

Among Democrats, Confidence in Clinton Winning Doesn’t Reflect the State of the Race

Expectations for Clinton’s success are highest among Democrat voters. Sixty-one percent of Democrats say Clinton will win, 26 percent say Sanders will win. That high confidence in Clinton could be problematic if Sanders upsets the former secretary of state Monday night. Both Democratic candidates were nearly tied in Iowa polls in the weeks ahead of the caucus, with Clinton pulling out a narrow 45 percent to 42 percent lead over Sanders in a Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll on Saturday. If Clinton fails to win the caucuses, the blow to her standing could be significant, given the confidence voters have in her to win from the outset.

Among Republicans, Few Expect Cruz to Beat Trump

A majority of Republican voters, 54 percent, say Trump will win the caucus. Just 13 percent say Texas Sen. Ted Cruz will win, while four percent say Sen. Marco Rubio will win and five percent say neurosurgeon Ben Carson will win.

Trump and Clinton Maintain Lead On National Stage

Both Trump and Clinton maintain their sizable leads nationally, beating second place candidates by nearly or at least 20 points. Trump gets 41 percent of registered Republican voters. Cruz maintains his place as the second-place finisher in the Republican field with 12 percent.

 1/1/202/1/203/1/204/1/205/1/206/1/206/15/20
Alabama125.5125.1128.1110.897.498.8100.3
Alaska117.4119.2112.8106.378.280.179.7
Arizona116.5118.2118.598.787.589.192
Arkansas118.6116.9117.8100.190.192.894.5
California111.1110.8111.592.780.482.385.2
Colorado108.8110.6112.892.478.182.783.5
Connecticut107.7107.4109.690.775.178.684.2
Delaware115.5115.1115.596.782.187.790.1
Florida119.1119.5118.610086.991.293
Georgia123.6124.4126108.494.795.898.1
Hawaii104.5105.5106.18472.576.876
Idaho119.5118.7124.3105.188.294.596.7
Illinois111.8111.111292.879.882.883.4
Indiana117.9119.6119.9101.185.389.592.1
Iowa108.1109.7110.690.280.482.287.8
Kansas116.3115.6112.692.58282.488.2
Kentucky115114.8116.4100.984.888.890.7
Louisiana119.3121.6125.4110.293.397.499.2
Maine107.6109.5111.387.174.977.278.5
Maryland113112.3113.993.779.583.786.4
Massachusetts108.4107.7107.789.975.777.181.2
Michigan111.8113.1114.594.680.181.384.2
Minnesota1151151169379.578.784.9
Mississippi122.1122.4123.3106.394.293.594.3
Missouri119119.4120.7101.48890.491.2
Montana119.3116.3115.1100.285.791.799.4
Nebraska117.9117119.393.583.588.288
Nevada121.8120.4121.895.885.986.187
New Hampshire109.3110.6109.59177.476.282.1
New Jersey111.7111.6111.891.779.680.984.4
New Mexico114.4111.5115100.187.18787.7
New York112.2112.2112.494.581.582.585.9
North Carolina118.8119.7121.399.488.791.491.9
North Dakota120.1115.6116.9100.679.785.486.3
Ohio114.9114.9116.696.882.585.788.6
Oklahoma115.9117.6118.9103.390.690.590.4
Oregon106.5109.3107.388.677.376.578.8
Pennsylvania112.8114.1114.895.380.383.487.6
Rhode Island109.5110.71118779.381.985.5
South Carolina121121.3124.110590.993.193
South Dakota108.5111.511598.480.588.189.2
Tennessee121.5122123.2103.192.69395.1
Texas120120.8120.610387.89192.6
Utah123.6122123.2102.388.594.495.4
Vermont99.499.695.183.3707575.2
Virginia117.7118.5118.8102.586.589.691.2
Washington110.2109.9107.489.380.883.182.4
West Virginia109.1108.6111.699.485.487.187.9
Wisconsin110.5111.3112.388.378.980.783.3
Wyoming122.7116.3124.2103.390.689.492.4

Clinton gained two percentage points from the last poll, putting her nearly 20 points ahead of Sanders nationally among Democrat voters.

 Official U6Reclassified U6
March 4.4%5.4%
April 14.7%19.7%
May 13.3%16.3%

Morning Consult conducted a national survey of 3,741 registered voters from January 29 – February 1, 2016. Results from the full survey have a margin of error of ±2%. The interviews were conducted online and the data were weighted to approximate a target sample of registered voters based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and region.

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