General
Biden’s embrace of Warrenworld poses new risks for Wall Street
Zachary Warmbrodt, Politico
Wall Street was relieved when Sen. Elizabeth Warren was passed over for the leadership of the Treasury Department. But now the financial industry faces another threat: President Joe Biden is enlisting a small army of her former aides and allies to run his government.
Powell Challenge: Reconcile Better Outlook and Ultra-Easy Policy
Catarina Saraiva, Bloomberg
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell could find himself in a tough spot this week, having to defend his ultra-easy monetary policy outlook amid a quickening economic recovery that’s ignited fears of inflation.
Biden, Harris Plan Cross-Country Tour to Tout Covid-19 Aid
Eliza Collins et al., The Wall Street Journal
President Biden and his top advisers will fan out across battleground states this week to promote the $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief law amid continued uncertainty about the path forward for the rest of Mr. Biden’s policy agenda.
Uncounted in the Unemployment Rate, but They Want to Work
Sydney Ember, The New York Times
Millions have left the labor force in the last year, many home with children or health concerns. The statistics may not reflect their aspirations.
Stimulus Bill as a Political Weapon? Democrats Are Counting on It.
Jonathan Martin, The New York Times
The $1.9 trillion package is a big bet by the party that it will restore a sense of normalcy by the 2022 elections and that voters will defy history and reward Democrats with more seats in Congress.
How Trump’s team amassed a $1 trillion war chest for Biden to deploy
Victoria Guida, Politico
Republicans are bashing the new $1.9 trillion pandemic relief package for further ballooning the federal debt, but it’s the Trump administration that greased the path for a smooth federal spending spree. The Treasury has a cash pile of well over $1 trillion, which will allow the government to quickly disburse money in line with the sweeping new law, including direct checks to millions of Americans that are expected to start hitting bank accounts in the coming week.
Exclusive: Former Harris aide Lily Adams joining Yellen at Treasury
Hans Nichols, Axios
Lily Adams, a veteran of Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential bid, is joining the Treasury Department to help promote the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan and the administration’s broader plans to combat income inequality.
What used cars tell us about the risk of too much inflation hitting the economy
Rachel Siegel and Andrew Van Dam, The Washington Post
When the coronavirus pandemic upended automobile supply chains last year, Darla Booher feared for Deal Depot, her used-car dealership in Greer, S.C. But Booher was surprised by what happened as supply constraints forced her to raise prices for Chevrolet Impalas or Ford Escapes: Buyers kept coming.
Two Decades After the ‘End of Welfare,’ Democrats Are Changing Direction
Jim Tankersley and Jason DeParle, The New York Times
A quarter-century ago, a Democratic president celebrated “the end of welfare as we know it,” challenging the poor to exercise “independence” and espousing balanced budgets and smaller government. The Democratic Party capped a march in the opposite direction this week.
White House Weighs How to Pay for Long-Term Economic Program
Kate Davidson, The Wall Street Journal
The Biden administration is looking past its $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill and starting to consider how to pay for the next round of programs meant to bolster long-term economic growth with investments in infrastructure, clean energy and education. The challenges are twofold. Officials face a decision over how much of the bill to pay for with tax increases and which policies to finance with more borrowing.
Turbocharged Economy Leaves Factories Struggling to Deliver Goods That Shoppers Want
Paul Hannon et al., The Wall Street Journal
Sales at Honey-Can-Do International LLC are soaring, as homebound Americans snap up the Chicago-area company’s clothes racks, shelves and other housewares. But the company’s contract manufacturers in China and Southeast Asia are so busy that they are struggling to meet “exceptionally high” demand, said company founder and Chief Executive Steve Greenspon.
U.S. Futures Climb With European Stocks and Oil: Markets Wrap
Andreea Papuc and Lynn Thomasson, Bloomberg
U.S. futures and European stocks climbed, with investors focused on the strength of the global economic recovery and progress in delivering vaccines.
Banking
U.S. Banks Will Turn Last Year’s Fear Into This Year’s Profits
David Benoit, The Wall Street Journal
In the coming months, banks are expected to free up tens of billions of dollars in reserves they set aside to cover soured loans—losses that still haven’t materialized a year into a pandemic that shut down swaths of the U.S. economy.
Goldman CEO’s Year of Empty Offices, Island Getaways and Strife
Sridhar Natarajan and Shahien Nasiripour, Bloomberg
The Goldman Sachs Gulfstream descended into the sun-kissed Bahamas that Friday with a familiar passenger aboard: David Solomon. It was the final days of February, and Solomon, the chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., had booked another weekend getaway on the new jet — his seventh in as many weeks.
Whistle-Blower Says Credit Suisse Helped Clients Skip Taxes After Promising to Stop
Katie Benner and Michael Forsythe, The New York Times
Seven years after Credit Suisse promised federal prosecutors that it would stop helping rich Americans hide their wealth from tax collectors, a whistle-blower is contending that it continued to do just that, raising the possibility that the Swiss bank could face a fresh investigation and steep financial penalties. The allegations, laid out in documents sent last week to the Justice Department and the Internal Revenue Service, were made by a former Credit Suisse employee.
Wells Fargo, JPMorgan See Ire Over Timing of Stimulus Checks
Jennifer Surane and Yuegi Yang, Bloomberg
Wells Fargo & Co. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. told customers they might not receive their stimulus money until Wednesday at the earliest, sparking backlash from consumers who were hoping to see the cash hit their accounts sooner. U.S. consumers have been eager to receive their $1,400 payment after President Joe Biden signed into law a third round of direct stimulus transfers in less than a year.
Financial Products and Investments
Exclusive: The S.E.C.’s evolution on E.S.G.
Andrew Ross Sorkin et al., The New York Times
Allison Herren Lee was named acting chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission in January, and since then she has been active, especially when it comes to environmental, social and governance, or E.S.G., issues. The agency has issued a flurry of notices that such disclosures will be priorities this year. Today, Ms. Lee, who was appointed as a commissioner by President Donald Trump in 2019, is speaking at the Center for American Progress, where she will call for input on additional E.S.G. transparency, according to prepared remarks seen by DealBook.
From Crypto Art to Trading Cards, Investment Manias Abound
Eric Griffith, The New York Times
This past week, a trading card featuring the quarterback Tom Brady sold for a record $1.3 million. The total value of the cryptocurrency Bitcoin hit $1 trillion. And Christie’s sold a digital artwork by an artist known as Beeple for $69.3 million after bids started at just $100.
Behind Greensill’s Collapse: Detour Into Risky Loans
Duncan Mavin and Julie Steinberg, The Wall Street Journal
Lex Greensill portrayed himself as a savior for small business. He started Greensill Capital to give the little guy a banking service mostly reserved for blue-chip companies: supply-chain finance, a type of cash advance that helps when payments are due from customers.
Short Sellers Boost Bets Against SPACs
Matt Wirz and Juliet Chung, The Wall Street Journal
Short sellers are coming for SPACs. Investors who bet against stocks are targeting special-purpose acquisition companies, one of the hottest growth areas on Wall Street.
Housing and GSEs
Homes in poor neighborhoods are taxed at roughly twice the rate of those in rich areas, study shows
Christopher Ingraham, The Washington Post
Homeowners in America’s poorest neighborhoods face effective property tax rates roughly double those levied on the richest ones, according to a massive new study by a University of Chicago researcher. In theory, all homeowners in a given jurisdiction are subject to the same property tax rate, regardless of home value.
Taxes
The IRS is behind in processing nearly 7 million tax returns, slowing refunds as it implements new stimulus
Heather Long and Tony Romm, The Washington Post
Nearly 7 million tax filers are in limbo and facing substantial delays in getting refunds so far this tax filing season, as the Internal Revenue Service struggles to keep up with the demands of issuing stimulus checks and implementing myriad tax code changes from coronavirus relief packages, including the one President Biden signed this week.
A Last-Minute Add to Stimulus Bill Could Restrict State Tax Cuts
Alan Rappeport, The New York Times
A last-minute change in the $1.9 trillion economic relief package that President Biden signed into law this week includes a provision that could temporarily prevent states that receive government aid from turning around and cutting taxes. The restriction, which was added by Senate Democrats, is intended to ensure that states use federal funds to keep their local economies humming and avoid drastic budget cuts and not simply use the money to subsidize tax cuts.
A By-the-Mile Tax on Driving Gains Steam as a Way to Fund U.S. Roads
Keith Laing, Bloomberg
President Joe Biden’s drive to increase electric car use may unintentionally thwart his other urgent priority to restore the nation’s roads, bridges and transit systems by undercutting federal gasoline tax receipts. That’s got U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg taking a serious look at an idea that’s drawn fierce opposition from privacy advocates and others: funding highway projects with a fee based on how many miles someone travels instead of how much gasoline they pump.
Financial Technology
A car, some jewelry, and a piece of cryptocurrency: the federal government is auctioning bitcoin
Hamza Shaban, The Washington Post
Next week, eager investors trying claim a piece of the extraordinary bitcoin rally can look to an unexpected broker: the federal government. Starting Monday, the General Services Administration, which regularly holds auctions on surplus federal assets — like office furniture, school buses and aircraft parts — will allow the public to bid on a fraction of a bitcoin, valued at $43,000, as of Friday afternoon.
Binance Probed by CFTC Over Whether U.S. Residents Traded
Benjamin Bain et al., Bloomberg
Binance Holdings Ltd., the largest cryptocurrency exchange, is being investigated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over concerns that it allowed Americans to place wagers that violated U.S. rules, according to people familiar with the matter.
Opinions, Editorials and Perspectives
Three Steps to Protect Port Workers and America’s Supply Demands
Nate Herman, Morning Consult
During the past few months, the United States has seen the biggest port backup since the longshore contract dispute of 2014-2015. This time the backup — like most problems these days — can be attributed in part to the COVID-19 pandemic. Outbreaks plus safety restrictions that have been put in place to prevent further spread of the virus — and a number of systemic problems — have created the perfect storm we face today.
Research Reports
The market-implied effects of the Biden stimulus and the Fed’s new policy framework
Gavin Goy et al., The Centre for Economic Policy Research
On the back of fiscal accommodation, a rebounding economy, and the Federal Reserve’s newfound tolerance for inflation overshoots, market-based inflation measures have surged, triggering concerns of an overheating of the US economy. By decomposing recent yield curve movements, this column shows that the steepening of the US Treasury curve corresponds with higher real term premia and a boost in both inflation expectations and the inflation risk premium.
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