ICYMI: Economic Recovery in the South Lags, While the Northeast Leaps Ahead

Consumer confidence is rebounding, but where you live makes a significant difference, per Morning Consult data from economist John Leer. 

  • Lackluster unemployment benefits in the South probably contributed to the lowest levels of sentiment on personal finances among geographic regions, Leer writes. 
  • People living in top tourism states, like Nevada and Hawaii, saw their finances tumble during the pandemic, and have had a harder time recovering. 

Read more takeaways here.

Top Stories

  • The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said it would like to push back the effective date of two debt collection rules finalized at the end of the Trump administration by 60 days, giving those impacted by the orders until Jan. 29, 2022, to prepare for the new requirements amid the coronavirus pandemic. The first rule stipulates how debt collectors can call, text or email borrowers, and the second defines the kinds of disclosures that debt collectors need to make to borrowers, bars collectors from threatening legal action on debt that is too old to collect and notes that collectors need to have a certain amount of contact with borrowers before reporting negative information to credit bureaus. (Reuters
  • President Joe Biden said that he is open to “good ideas and good-faith negotiations” on his $2 trillion infrastructure package, opening the door specifically to discussions on a lower corporate tax hike than his preferred rate of 28 percent. Biden, who said he plans to invite Republicans to the White House for negotiations, added that he isn’t open to doing nothing on infrastructure, saying that “inaction is simply not an option.” (The Washington Post
  • As part of the Biden administration’s plan for a global minimum tax, the Treasury Department sent out documents to 135 countries negotiating international taxation at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development that detail how the world’s largest businesses would be taxed based on their sales in each country, according to a media outlet that obtained the documents. The plan would apply to companies, notably U.S. technology companies, even if they have little physical presence in any given country. (Financial Times)
  • Part of Biden’s infrastructure package — a 15 percent minimum tax on large, profitable corporations — would apply only to companies making more than $2 billion in income, meaning that only 180 companies would meet the threshold and 45 would pay the tax, compared to the $100 million income level that Biden outlined during his campaign, according to details released by the Treasury Department. The plan would also allow companies subject to the tax to receive tax credits for research, renewable energy and low-income housing. (The Wall Street Journal)

Chart Review

Events Calendar (All Times Local)

04/08/2021
International Monetary Fund Debate on the Global Economy event with Jay Powell 12:00 pm
Economic Club of New York event: Neel Kashkari, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 2:00 pm
04/12/2021
AEI event: “Government policies reshape the banking industry: Changes, consequences, and policy issues” 10:00 am
04/13/2021
The Hamilton Project event: “Rethinking unemployment insurance and housing support: Policies to protect workers and families” 10:30 am
WHF Public Policy Luncheon with President and CEO of Independent Community Bankers of America, Rebeca Romero Rainey 12:00 pm
View full calendar


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General

Fed Minutes Show Expectations for Stronger Economic Recovery
Paul Kiernan and Michael S. Derby, The Wall Street Journal

Federal Reserve officials pointed to a brighter outlook for the economy at their most recent meeting while agreeing to provide continued support through ultralow interest rates and large monthly bond purchases. President Biden’s $1.9 trillion pandemic relief package, signed into law March 11, prompted Fed policy makers to lift their forecasts for U.S. economic growth and inflation this year ahead of their March 16-17 meeting.

As Diners Return, Restaurants Face a New Hurdle: Finding Workers
Brett Anderson, The New York Times

 All Day, a downtown coffee shop and restaurant, started the year on a high note. January was its busiest month since the start of the pandemic. “It was like turning on a light switch,” said Camila Ramos, an owner. Business was so good, it pushed All Day’s staff to a near-breaking point, Ms. Ramos said. When she had trouble hiring reinforcements to help with the increased traffic, she was forced to make a counterintuitive decision: She closed All Day for the month of February.

Jobless Claims Expected to Hold Near Pandemic Low
Gwynn Guilford, The Wall Street Journal

Weekly unemployment claims are close to their lowest level since the Covid-19 pandemic hit more than a year ago, adding to evidence that layoffs are easing as an economic revival gathers force. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect worker filings for initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, to have fallen to 694,000 last week, from 719,000 the preceding week.

CEOs of public U.S. firms earn 320 times as much as workers. Even some CEOS say the gap is too big.
Gretchen Morgenson, NBC News

Last August, Jamelle Brown, a technician at Research Medical Center in Kansas City, Missouri, contracted Covid-19 while on the job sanitizing and sterilizing rooms in the facility’s emergency department. Luckily, his case wasn’t severe, and after having quarantined, he was back at work.

Futures Rise With Europe Stocks; Treasuries Gain: Markets Wrap
Robert Brand, Bloomberg

U.S. equity futures gained with European stocks on Thursday as the Federal Reserve’s commitment to supportive policy helped boost sentiment.

Banking

Wall Street and big tech team up to oppose Texas wind power bill
Gregory Meyer, Financial Times

State’s legislature debates plan to impose extra costs on renewables plants.

Credit Suisse Ignored Warnings Before Archegos and Greensill Imploded
Margot Patrick et al., The Wall Street Journal

Credit Suisse Group AG’s double-barreled financial crisis shares a common theme: a bank that looked the other way when warning signs argued for pulling back on lucrative corners of its business. The Swiss bank with a big Wall Street presence was caught off guard starting in late February when $10 billion in complicated investment funds it ran with financing firm Greensill Capital unraveled, despite years of internal warnings about the relationship.

Credit Suisse CEO Faces Anger in the Ranks on Archegos Mess
Patrick Winters and Jan-Henrik Foerster, Bloomberg

For the second time in a little more than a week, Thomas Gottstein was facing a tough crowd: his own bankers. The chief executive officer of Credit Suisse Group AG gathered dozens of managing directors at the global bank on a conference call late Tuesday, as part of crisis-management efforts after the lender announced that it stands to lose as much as $4.7 billion amid the meltdown of hedge fund Archegos Capital Management.

Goldman Secrecy in Harassment Claims Faces New Challenge in Vote
Saijel Kishan, Bloomberg

After Wells Fargo & Co. became the first of the largest U.S. banks to do away with mandatory arbitration for sexual-harassment complaints last year, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is being urged to take steps in the same direction. Goldman faces a vote at its annual meeting later this month on whether it should publish a report on how its mandatory-arbitration policy impacts employees and workplace culture.

Financial Products and Investments

Most Big Debt Collectors Backed Off During the Pandemic. One Pressed Ahead.
Shane Shifflett and Justin Scheck, The Wall Street Journal

When Covid-19 hit the economy, most debt collectors gave borrowers a break, cutting back on lawsuits amid lockdowns, closed courts and loan-forbearance initiatives. One of the biggest and least-known companies in the industry did the opposite.

SEC Official Warns on Growth of Blank-Check Firms
Dave Michaels, The Wall Street Journal

A top securities regulator warned about the surge in fundraising by blank-check companies known as special-purpose acquisition companies. Speaking at a legal conference Wednesday, Securities and Exchange Commission official John Coates said there are “some significant and yet undiscovered issues” with SPACs, which allow private companies to go public with a structure that offers outsize potential rewards to backers while bypassing some safeguards of a traditional initial public offering.

Bill Hwang Had $20 Billion, Then Lost It All in Two Days
Erik Schatzker et al., Bloomberg Businessweek

Before he lost it all—all $20 billion—Bill Hwang was the greatest trader you’d never heard of. Starting in 2013, he parlayed more than $200 million left over from his shuttered hedge fund into a mind-boggling fortune by betting on stocks.

Instacart and DoorDash Plan to Launch Their Own Credit Cards
AnnaMaria Andriotis and David Benoit, The Wall Street Journal

Two of the biggest winners in the pandemic delivery boom are looking to launch their own credit cards. Grocery-delivery service Instacart Inc. has chosen JPMorgan Chase & Co. to issue a credit card that will reward frequent users, according to people familiar with the matter. DoorDash Inc., which specializes in delivering takeout, is also looking to launch its own rewards credit card and received offers from more than 10 large banks and financial-technology firms to issue it, people familiar with the matter said.

Predatory debt collectors would be barred from government’s pandemic relief loans under new bill
Peter Whoriskey, The Washington Post

Predatory debt collectors would be barred from collecting any more money from the federal government’s Paycheck Protection Program under recently proposed U.S. legislation. Rep. Suzanne Bonamici (D-Ore.) and Rep. Marie Newman (D-Ill.) introduced the measure last week, arguing that during the pandemic, abusive collectors had harassed consumers and that such firms should not be eligible for the federal relief. 

Greensill’s demise turns spotlight on Marsh
Ian Smith, Financial Times

US insurance broker was responsible for finding cover for the supply chain finance group.

Housing and GSEs

Biden’s Infrastructure Plan Seeks to Ease Housing Shortage With Looser Zoning Rules
Andrew Ackerman and Nicole Friedman, The Wall Street Journal

A Biden administration push to increase the supply of affordable housing aims to coax states and localities into easing restrictions on new construction, a bid to help address a historic shortage of new housing. A roughly $213 billion affordable-housing initiative in the $2.3 trillion infrastructure plan unveiled last week includes a competitive grant program to target so-called exclusionary zoning laws that the administration says have inflated housing and construction costs and locked families out of areas with more opportunities. 

Taxes

Confusion may be Democrats’ friend in drive to raise corporate taxes
Brian Faler, Politico 

Democrats have a secret weapon in their bid to raise corporate taxes: Much of it will seem incomprehensible. To defray the cost of their $2 trillion infrastructure spending plan, they are turning to one of the densest, most impenetrable parts of the tax code in search of revenue. 

G-20 to Seek Agreement on Global Minimum Tax Rate by Mid-2021
Paul Hannon and Yuka Hayashi, The Wall Street Journal

Finance ministers from the Group of 20 leading economies Wednesday said they hope to agree on a minimum tax rate for company profits by the middle of this year as part of a wider overhaul of the way international businesses are taxed. The finance ministers met virtually two days after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen argued for a global minimum corporate tax rate, seeking international cooperation that is crucial to funding the Biden administration’s $2.3 trillion infrastructure proposal.

Biden Tax Plan Targets Fossil Fuel Subsidies Worth $35 Billion
Kevin Crowley, Bloomberg

President Joe Biden’s plan to eliminate subsidies claimed by oil and gas companies and raise levies on corporate polluters would increase government receipts by $35 billion over the coming decade. The benefits of these subsidies are currently concentrated “within a handful of large firms,” the Treasury said in the Made In America Tax Plan released Wednesday.

Veterans still waiting for their $1,400 stimulus payments should get direct deposits by April 14
Michelle Singletary, The Washington Post

The IRS has disbursed another $36 billion in stimulus payments, bringing the total in the latest round of covid-related direct relief to about $372 billion. The distribution includes 25 million payments, with much of the money going to Social Security beneficiaries, according to an announcement from the IRS and Treasury

White House Sees GOP’s Corporate Tax-Cut Defense as a Big Loser
Jennifer Epstein and Laura Davison, Bloomberg

The White House views Republican attacks on President Joe Biden’s proposal to use corporate tax hikes to pay for a vast infrastructure program as a losing argument in the battle for public opinion, aides and allies of the administration say. The GOP — which successfully painted the Obama-Biden administration’s initial spending programs as economically ineffective and wasteful in the run-up to the 2010 congressional elections — has joined with the business lobby in the past week to assail Biden’s proposed tax increases.

Financial Technology

Walmart Files for Trademark for Fintech Unit: ‘Hazel by Walmart’
Matthew Boyle and Leslie Patton, Bloomberg

Walmart Inc.’s financial technology venture, still shrouded in mystery, now has a possible name: Hazel by Walmart. The world’s largest retailer filed for a trademark on the name on March 29, in the process giving clues as to what the startup might actually do. 

State Street to provide tech for cryptocurrency trading platform
Eva Szalay, Financial Times

US asset manager to help power Pure Digital venue as financial firms inch into market.

Opinions, Editorials and Perspectives

A Better Corporate Tax for America
Janet Yellen, The Wall Street Journal

When Congress enacted the Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017, the result was a dramatic reduction in corporate tax revenue. Over the past three years, corporate tax collections have fallen to their lowest level since World War II: 1% of gross domestic product. 

Dorothy Brown: ‘The System for Wealth Building Is Designed to Build White Wealth’
Sarah Jones, Intelligencer 

How often do you think about your taxes? Once a year, maybe, when it’s time to file, or when you got married, or when you bought a home? If you’re white, taxes are often an inconvenience at worst. The tax code may even benefit you when you get married and start filing a joint return.

Research Reports

Central Bank Digital Currencies: Costs, Benefits and Major Implications for the U.S. Economic System
Gregory Baer, Bank Policy Institute 

This note analyzes the benefits and costs of issuing a central bank digital currency, or CBDC. A central bank digital currency is not simply paper currency in digital form: its adoption would have profound consequences for the U.S. financial system and economy. It could transform the place of the central bank, and the government more generally, in our society.

Morning Consult