2026 Holiday Season Retail Trends

Rising prices are prompting cutbacks. Nearly three-quarters of adults (74%) say prices are higher than three months ago, and 86% have cut back on at least one category because of rising prices. Restaurants and takeout lead those cutbacks, followed by clothing and groceries.

More Americans plan to reduce holiday spending than increase it. Some 38% expect to spend less than last year, compared with 16% who plan to spend more and 37% who expect to spend about the same. Baby Boomers are especially likely to cut back: 45% plan to spend less.

AI shopping assistance is starting to be adopted widely, but most consumers remain in the loop. Just over half of adults (53%) have used an AI assistant to search for products, compare prices or make purchases. Comfort with letting AI purchase automatically reaches no higher than 31% across the categories tested, and only 25% would feel comfortable sharing payment details.

Nearly a third plan to use buy now, pay later for holiday gifts. That share rises from 31% overall to 46% among Gen Z and 43% among millennials. Repayment is a concern for many: 51% of current, planned or past users worry about paying back a purchase on time.

Most consumers object to return fees, and younger shoppers frequently buy with returns in mind. Three-quarters say return fees are unreasonable. Half of Gen Z adults often order multiple sizes, colors or versions with plans to return some, compared with 7% of Baby Boomers.