Report
January 2026 Macro Update: Confidence is Plunging Among High-Income Earners
The U.S. economy continued to broadly deteriorate last week, driven by one of the largest decreases in consumer sentiment among high-income earners in series history.
Authors
John Leer
Chief Economist
Report preview
Ongoing drop in high-income sentiment isn’t without precedent, but it’s getting close
Over the past eight years, high-income ICS has fallen by 10% or more on six other occasions, and only the 30% drop in the immediate fallout from COVID corresponds with a recession.
Stakes are high: 2025 spending growth was primarily been driven by high-income consumers
Persistent decreases in the high-income ICS have already impacted the Consumer Health Index, offering a negative outlook for consumer spending from this market segment.