Mass Retailers Dominate Mental Availability in the Department Store Category

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The bottom line up front  

Mass retailers now dominate mental availability in the department store category. Walmart is the first store consumers think of for 17 of 20 shopping occasions and holds 26.6% mental market share, more than triple the largest department store (Kohl's, at 7.9%). Target is the runner-up on most occasions. That dominance is concentrated among lower-income shoppers, and it weakens as income rises: among shoppers earning $100K or more, Macy's (12.4% mental market share) nearly matches Target and leads Walmart on the dressed-up occasions. That is where the opportunity for traditional department stores sits. Macy's is the only one that leads any occasion today, and it leads two: shopping for a wedding and finding an outfit for a special event. The high-frequency value occasions belong to mass and, increasingly, to off-price. Awareness is not the issue -- Kohl's and JCPenney are as well known as Walmart and still lead no occasions. The question is which occasions department stores can realistically own, and the answer is a narrow set, not the value occasions most of them are competing for.

For this analysis, we focused and surveyed on major department stores in the U.S. that primarily have brick and mortar locations.

The Category Today

Note: These scores in this table are based on the full set of brands we ran our study on, not just the brands listed in the headers at the top. To see the full table, get in touch.

Awareness is not the constraint. Kohl's (72.1% aware) and JCPenney (72.3% aware) are as widely known as Walmart, but each leads no occasions and holds only 7.9% and 5.7% mental market share. Consumers know these stores; they just don't connect them to a specific reason to shop. More awareness spending will not change that.

Where department stores do lead is a narrow set of occasions. Macy's leads the category on shopping for a wedding (36.5% association vs. Walmart's 30.3%) and needing an outfit for a special event (34.0% vs. 31.5%) -- occasions where how you look matters more than what you spend. Macy's is also the strongest traditional department store on browsing for new styles (29.1%), rewarding yourself (24.6%), and restocking beauty (24.4%). HomeGoods leads on one occasion, refreshing the home (53.0%), and little else. These discretionary, style-driven occasions are where the opportunity lies.

Mass retailers lead almost everywhere else. Walmart owns the high-frequency value occasions: a major sale or promotion (48.3%), looking for a great deal (57.9%), stocking up on everyday essentials (75.0%), and replacing worn-out clothes (57.2%). These are also the occasions consumers name most often -- a sale or promotion (30.7%), a great deal (30.3%), a specific planned item (29.9%). The occasions that matter most to shoppers are the ones department stores no longer lead.

Off-price is the less obvious threat. Ross (65.3% mental penetration, 6.3% mental market share), TJ Maxx (64.9%, 6.1%), and Marshalls (63.3%, 5.6%) now match or beat mid-market department stores like JCPenney on mental penetration, and Ross is second only to Walmart on the deal-and-bargain occasions. The value shopper who once browsed a department store is increasingly choosing off-price instead.

The Moments That Matter

The category's most common entry points are value- and routine-driven, and mass retailers lead them:

“A major sale or promotion” (~31% name it) -- the most common trigger; Walmart leads (48.3%), Kohl's strongest among department stores (32.9%).

“Looking for a great deal or bargain” (~30%) -- Walmart (57.9%), Ross second (35.6%). No department store is close.

“Shopping for a specific planned item” (~30%) -- Walmart (60.3%), Target second (37.6%).

“Buying a gift for a holiday or special occasion” (~28%) -- Walmart (54.4%), Target (39.7%).

The occasions department stores can still win are less frequent but higher-value: weddings (~12%, Macy's leads), special-event outfits (~25%, Macy's leads), browsing and discovery (~19%), and self-reward (~16%). On these occasions, price is not the deciding factor.

How Segments Differ -- Income Rewrites the Story

The total-sample figures hide the most important pattern. Walmart's dominance is concentrated among lower-income shoppers and weakens as income rises: its mental market share falls from 32.8% among shoppers earning under $50K to 21.0% at $50-100K to 16.4% at $100K+. Macy's moves the opposite way, rising from 5.4% to 9.7% to 12.4% -- so among $100K+ shoppers it nearly matches Target (12.6%) and closes most of the gap to Walmart. Nordstrom triples over the same range (1.7% to 5.1%). The premium department stores are not weak brands; their strength is concentrated among higher-income shoppers, which the total-sample average obscures.

The dressed-up occasions show the clearest reversal. Among $100K+ shoppers, Macy's leads Walmart on weddings 43.8% to 23.3% and on special-event outfits 43.0% to 22.3%, close to a two-to-one lead where the total sample was roughly even. Macy's also passes Walmart on browsing and discovery among top-income shoppers (33.7% vs. 27.4%), and Nordstrom reaches about 29% on both dressed-up occasions among high earners. Off-price follows the same income pattern in reverse: Ross is strongest among lower-income shoppers (mental market share 7.5%, falling to 3.9% at higher incomes), while TJ Maxx and Marshalls stay roughly flat across income.

Age, gender, and region change the weighting but not the overall picture. Department store users skew younger-to-middle-aged, with parents overrepresented. Lower-income and family shoppers lean toward the value occasions mass already leads, so competing there is difficult. The discretionary occasions index toward higher-income, style-oriented shoppers, who are reachable on Pinterest and Instagram.

What's Blocking the Category

Department stores are not losing on awareness. They are losing on relevance to the occasions that come up most often. The problem is structural: the high-frequency occasions -- sales, deals, everyday replacement, essentials -- favor the retailer with the broadest, lowest-priced, most convenient footprint, which is mass. A department store that spends to be associated with “a great deal” is unlikely to win that association, because Walmart already holds it.

The second problem is weak emotional connection. Across traditional department stores, the highest score is Kohl's at 3.13 on a 1-7 scale, well below Walmart's 5.01 and Target's 3.73. The luxury names score lowest: Saks Fifth Avenue (1.87), Neiman Marcus (1.84), Bergdorf Goodman (1.95), and Bloomingdale's (1.92), and they also have among the lowest penetration in the category. These brands have strong reputations but limited everyday relevance.

Why This Matters Now

Stop competing on the value occasions. The most common occasions in the category are the ones mass leads most decisively. Spending to be known for “sale,” “deal,” or “everyday value” means competing directly with Walmart, where most department stores will not win. 

Focus on the discretionary occasions and higher-income shoppers. Weddings, special events, style discovery, and self-reward are the only occasions where a traditional department store leads or comes close, and that lead is strongest among $100K+ shoppers. Macy's shows the position can be won.

Treat off-price, not other department stores, as the main competitor for the value shopper. Ross, TJ Maxx, and Marshalls are gaining mental penetration on the deal occasions. A mid-market department store competing with them on value will lose on both price and selection.

Diagnose before spending. Where a brand has strong awareness but low market share -- Kohl's and JCPenney most clearly -- the issue is occasion relevance, not reach. Moving budget from general awareness toward owning a specific, defensible occasion will return more than spending against occasions the brand cannot win.

About this research

Morning Consult conducts over 30,000 daily proprietary surveys in 45 countries covering more than 5,000 brands and 50 economic indicators. 

Our category advantage research is aimed at understanding the needs driving consumers in your category — and how your brand can own more of them. This research is built on validated principles of brand-driven growth and powered by Morning Consult’s industry-leading sampling technology.

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