Morning Consult Finance: Regulators Said to Eye New Rules to Reduce Risk at Large Regional Banks




 


Finance

Essential financial news & intel to start your day.
September 19, 2022
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Today’s Top News

  • Amid concerns that large regional banks’ steady growth has introduced new risk into the financial system, bank regulators appointed by President Joe Biden are considering expanding rules that would further bolster these banks’ ability to survive a crisis. According to people familiar with the matter, the new rules could require regional banks to raise long-term debt, a move that banking trade groups are saying is unwarranted. (The Wall Street Journal)
  • Biden said that he hopes the economy will achieve a “soft landing” as the Federal Reserve works to quell high inflation and that he expects Americans to be in a position to gain control over rising prices as they reap savings from lower energy, health care and prescription drug prices. “I’m more optimistic than I’ve been in a long time,” Biden said in an interview with CBS’s “60 Minutes.” (CBS News)
  • Federal Reserve officials are looking into Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s online retail banking platform Marcus, according to people with knowledge of the matter, though the inquiry is not indicative of any wrongdoing. Fed staff have been peppering Goldman with questions for several weeks, the people said; a Goldman spokesperson declined to comment. (Bloomberg)

 

Worth watching today (all times local):

11:30 a.m. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler will speak on climate-related disclosures at the Clinton Foundation’s Global Initiative meeting

 

Noon World Bank Group President David Malpass will take part in a webinar at The Economic Club of New York. 

 

Also: The National Association of Home Builders releases September housing-market index figures. 

 

Chart Review



 
 

What Else You Need to Know

General
 

Another Culture War Front: Are Companies Too ‘Woke’ When It Comes to Climate?

David Gelles, The New York Times

Conservatives in the U.S. have targeted firms for their environmental policies, but many companies are standing their ground.

 

Student Loan Subsidies Could Have Dangerous, Unintended Side Effects

Stacy Cowley, The New York Times

The centerpiece of the student debt-relief plan that President Biden announced last month is his decision to cancel up to $20,000 per borrower in federal loans. But the more far-reaching — and, over time, more expensive — element of the president’s strategy is his blueprint for a revamped income-linked repayment plan, which would sharply reduce what many borrowers pay every month.

 

U.S. Return-to-Office Rates Hit Pandemic High as More Employers Get Tougher

Peter Grant, The Wall Street Journal

Workers are returning to U.S. offices at the highest rate since the pandemic forced most workplaces to temporarily close in 2020, as infection rates continue to fall and more companies intensify efforts to bring employees back.

 
Fiscal Policy
 

IRS Faces Tight Job Market and Competition for Talent as It Recruits Thousands

Richard Rubin, The Wall Street Journal

The Internal Revenue Service now has plenty of money. Its next challenge: finding people. The tax agency received $80 billion from Congress this summer to overhaul aging computer systems and strengthen enforcement so the U.S. collects more unpaid taxes.

 

Tensions rise amid frustration over mystery Manchin deal

Aris Folley and Rachel Frazin, The Hill

Lawmakers are frustrated about being kept in the dark as Democratic leaders strategize how to jimmy an energy deal struck with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) behind closed doors through Congress — while also averting a government shutdown. Democratic leadership is aiming to use a must-pass government-funding bill to advance an energy permitting proposal by Manchin by the end of the month.

 

The ultimate billionaire tax dodge

Felix Salmon, Axios

Entrepreneurs tend to hate paying taxes, and they love supporting pet causes. Now it’s becoming clearer how they can pass entire billion-dollar companies through a charitable loophole.

 
Economy and Monetary Policy
 

Federal Reserve to keep interest rates above 4% beyond 2023, economists predict

Colby Smith and Caitlin Gilbert, Financial Times

FT-IGM Survey forecasts central bank will prolong its aggressive campaign against decades-high inflation.

 

Larry Summers urges the Fed to keep raising rates – and warns that hiking too slowly risks an economic disaster

Theron Mohamed, Insider

The Federal Reserve needs to keep hiking interest rates to crush inflation and avoid an economic disaster, Larry Summers has warned. “We’ve got a substantial underlying inflation problem that doesn’t come out without very substantial monetary policy adjustment,” the economist told Bloomberg on Friday.

 

Fed prepares to update racing odds as inflation bucks the reins

Howard Schneider, Reuters

The Federal Reserve, after chasing inflation for the better part of a year, will look ahead as far as 2025 in new projections this week that will show more fully the depth and length of the economic “pain” its policymakers expect to be needed to stop the current surge in prices.

 

Jobless Rates Tick Up on East Coast, Led by New York City

Alex Tanzi, Bloomberg

While unemployment in the US remains near historic lows, jobless rates are edging up on the East Coast — and particularly in New York City, where it remains well above its pre-pandemic level.

 

Worker shortages are fueling America’s biggest labor crises

Abha Bhattarai, The Washington Post

The U.S. economy came within hours of shutting down because of a standoff between unions and railroad carriers over sick pay and scheduling, highlighting just how dramatically staffing shortages have reshaped American workplaces and driven exhausted workers to push back.

 

High Food Prices Are Getting to People. The Scene at One Grocery Store Shows Why.

Rachel Wolfe, The Wall Street Journal

To understand how people are navigating inflation these days, go to a grocery-store parking lot. An afternoon spent talking with shoppers and reviewing grocery receipts outside of Rouses Market in Houma, nearly 60 miles southwest of New Orleans, painted a picture of the trade-offs and difficult decisions families are facing to afford steadily rising food bills.

 

Dollar’s Rise Spells Trouble for Global Economies

Chelsey Dulaney et al., The Wall Street Journal

The U.S. dollar is experiencing a once-in-a-generation rally, a surge that threatens to exacerbate a slowdown in growth and amplify inflation headaches for global central banks.

 

Work-life policies are increasingly high-stakes economics

Emily Peck, Axios

Work-life policies like paid sick and medical leave, as well as reasonable hours and scheduling, are becoming a more high-stakes economic issue, as in-person workers exercise their increased leverage in a tight labor market — and cope with more than two years of working on the front lines of a pandemic.

 
Banking
 

Goldman Sachs defeats employee class action over retirement plan

Jonathan Stempel, Reuters

Goldman Sachs Group Inc won the dismissal of a proposed class action by tens of thousands of employees over its alleged imprudent use of high-cost, underperforming in-house mutual funds as investment options in their retirement plan.

 

Capital One released from consent order related to 2019 data breach

Carter Pape, American Banker

Capital One recently received notice from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency that the bank had achieved a level of “safety and soundness” that no longer required the extra oversight the office imposed on the bank after its 2019 cybersecurity breach.

 

Credit Suisse settles U.S. shareholder lawsuit over risk exposure, Archegos

Jonathan Stempel, Reuters

Credit Suisse Group AG reached a $32.5 million settlement to resolve a lawsuit accusing the Swiss bank of misleading shareholders about how well it managed risk, including its exposure to “high-risk” clients such as Archegos Capital Management.

 

 
Financial Products and Investments
 

US 10-Year Yield Rises to 3.5% for First Time Since 2011

Marcus Wong, Bloomberg

Treasury 10-year yields rose above 3.50% for the first time since 2011 as the US inflation trend reinforced the case for more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening.

 

US lawmakers’ stock market trades targeted by ETFs

Steve Johnson, Financial Times

Upstart fund manager plans to piggyback on controversial transactions by politicians.

 

More Americans Are Stuck With Long-Term Credit-Card Debt

Alexandre Tanzi, Bloomberg

More US consumers are saddled with credit-card debts for longer periods of time, according to a survey, struggling to pay down amid high inflation and rising interest rates.

 

 
Housing and GSEs
 

Rocket launches program to lower first-year mortgage payments

Connie Kim, HousingWire

Rocket Mortgage and its wholesale arm Rocket Pro TPO will reduce homebuyers’ monthly mortgage payments by one full percentage point for the first year of their loan. Dubbed the “Inflation Buster” program, Rocket aims to give borrowers a reprieve to combat high inflation and affordability challenges, the company said in a statement Friday.

 

We’re entering the next stage of the housing market downturn—3 things to expect heading forward

Lance Lambert, Fortune

Back in June, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear: The housing market would go through a “reset.” “I’d say if you are a homebuyer, somebody or a young person looking to buy a home, you need a bit of a reset. We need to get back to a place where supply and demand are back together and where inflation is down low again, and mortgage rates are low again,” Powell told reporters.

 

The 5 U.S. cities where rent prices decreased the most in August

Molly Schiff, CNBC

Across the U.S., rent prices continue to soar. But in a few select places, it’s decreasing. That’s according to real estate site Zumper’s recently released national rent report for August 2022, which shows a continuation of record-high prices for one-bedroom apartments.

 

As Mortgage Rates Top 6%, More Borrowers Choose Adjustable-Rate Loans

Julia Carpenter, The Wall Street Journal

Mortgage rates surged past 6% this week, pushing already pricey homes further out of reach for many borrowers. Discouraged buyers might choose to hold off, betting that prices and rates will drop in the years ahead as the market cools and inflation slows, as some economists predict.

 

One underappreciated economic indicator is deeply negative

Zachary Halaschak, The Washington Examiner

One housing indicator bodes especially poorly for the economy. Homebuilder confidence, which gauges the market conditions in the single-family construction space, has plummeted over the past few months as the housing market takes a beating and appears to now be facing recessionary conditions.

 
Financial Technology
 

SEC, Ripple Call for Immediate Ruling in Suit Over Whether XRP Sales Violated Securities Laws

Nikhilesh De, CoinDesk

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and Ripple Labs both filed motions for summary judgment, arguing that a judge overseeing the case has enough information to make a ruling without moving the case forward to a trial.

 

UK financial watchdog issues warning against crypto exchange FTX

Joshua Oliver, Financial Times

FCA says group led by Sam Bankman-Fried is ‘targeting’ consumers without authorisation.

 

Celsius Network charts future, expecting customers to forget its past

Crystal Kim, Axios

Celsius Network is charting its future while mired in a bankruptcy proceeding that just got more interesting. Eager to resume business operations, the crypto lender is now asking the court for permission to sell its stash of stablecoins to fund operations, according to a filing submitted Thursday.

 

The lawless world of crypto scams

Joshua Oliver, Financial Times

Fraudsters took advantage of the hype during the pandemic to prey on individuals — exposing a gaping hole in consumer protections

 

Binance Bungles Accounting for Helium Tokens, Overpays Clients Millions: Sources

Danny Nelson, CoinDesk

An accounting bug at Binance has led to a windfall in Helium Network’s native HNT token for some users and shouldered the world’s largest crypto exchange with a multimillion-dollar shortfall, according to people familiar with the matter.

 

Crypto pulled off its big upgrade. Even larger ambitions await.

Steven Zeitchik, The Washington Post

The platform that hosts many of the world’s NFT and cryptocurrency trades just completed one of the trickiest upgrades in modern technology. Now come the really big goals.

 

 
Opinions, Editorials and Perspectives
 

Businesses No Longer See Climate Action as Driving Job Losses

Gina McCarthy, The New York Times

This week, as the world’s leaders gather in New York for the U.N. General Assembly, the United States will deliver a message many thought was not possible: We are going to cut greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030, and zero them out by 2050. Over the past 20 months as America’s first-ever national climate adviser, I have witnessed a paradigm shift: The private sector no longer sees climate action as a source of job losses, but rather as an opportunity for job creation and economic revitalization.

 

A Sneaky Form of Climate Obstruction Hurts Pension Funds

Tobias Read, The New York Times

In several Republican-led states, the officials who oversee pension funds for millions of state workers are being told, or may soon be told, to ignore the financial risks associated with a warming world. There’s something distinctly anti-free market about policymakers limiting investment professionals’ choices — and it’s putting the retirement savings of millions at risk.

 







Morning Consult