Morning Consult Finance: What’s Ahead & Week in Review




 


Finance

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March 19, 2023
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Good morning, finance readers.

 

As the country skated dangerously close to a regional banking crisis last week, regulators and lawmakers wasted no time in asking “how did this happen?” and “who is responsible?”

 

Democratic lawmakers and the Biden administration were speedy in pinning blame for the situation on the rollback of Dodd-Frank rules that had released banks the size of the failed Silicon Valley Bank from certain consumer protection and capital requirements, as well as on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, a Trump administration appointee.  

 

Powell announced Monday that Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Michael Barr will lead a “thorough, transparent and swift review” of the agency’s oversight of SVB, with findings set to be released to the public on May 1. The Biden administration is trying to keep a tight rein on the narrative here, and Barr may be preparing the Fed to have to eat some humble pie in May: In the announcement of the oversight review, Barr said, “We need to have humility, and conduct a careful and thorough review of how we supervised and regulated this firm, and what we should learn from this experience.”

 

Aaron Klein, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center on Regulation and Markets and a former deputy assistant secretary at the Treasury Department, said this week in an opinion piece that the Fed has missed some serious red flags with regard to the precarity of Silicon Valley Bank. I asked him if Barr’s comments that the Fed should have “humility” in its review were telling. 

 

“Vice Chairman Barr is a brilliant and serious person with a strong nose to detect nonsense. He was spot on to start by signaling the need for greater humility at the Fed, as they failed as supervisor of SVB, and now Americans are paying the price of the Fed’s failure,” Klein said in an email. 

 

But Klein also said that the Fed has a “horrific” record when it comes to internal investigations and transparency, noting it has refused to disclose the dates of stock trading by the presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston and Dallas, which Klein described as unethical. (The Fed leaders, Eric Rosengren and Robert Kaplan, retired early in 2021 after they disclosed the trades, which they said complied with the Fed’s codes of conduct.) 

 

“Dates of trades are basic facts, easily knowable. The Fed’s failure to be honest with the public and about the improper actions of other senior officials deeply undermines their credibility to internally investigate themselves,” Klein said. 

 

When asked for comment, a Fed spokesperson pointed to Powell’s remarks during a Jan. 26, 2022, press briefing when Bloomberg’s Craig Torres asked about disclosing the trading dates. Powell said the board didn’t have that information and that he had asked the inspector general to do an investigation.

 

The Fed is already taking much of the heat for the recent banking failures. Indeed, The Hill’s Jared Gans noted that House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) met with San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank leaders on Thursday, and former Fed governor Daniel Tarullo told The Washington Post, “It’s just hard for me to believe that a big piece of this was not a failure of the supervisors to look more closely at a fast-growing bank.”

 

Whoever ends up being held responsible for the failed banks and the resultant panic, voters were mostly glad the Biden administration protected SVB depositors, according to my latest story. Hopefully you caught our coverage on that topic, and so you’ll know the answer to at least one of the questions in this week’s MCIQ quiz

 

What’s Ahead

The Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee will begin its quarterly policy meeting Tuesday, with the Fed’s decision coming out on Wednesday at 2 p.m., followed by Powell’s press conference. Given the banking industry upheaval, at midweek investors were 50-50 on the Fed pausing or raising rates at this meeting. 

 

At the American Bankers Association Washington Summit, which begins today, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will give remarks on the economy and the health of the banking system at the opening session on Tuesday, and Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu will discuss his agency’s priorities and policy issues facing the banking industry on Wednesday

 

Citigroup Inc. CEO Jane Fraser will speak at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C., on Wednesday

 

Sheila Bair, former chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., will join The Washington Post on Tuesday to discuss the path forward for the global banking system. 

 

Meetings and hearings worth noting:

 

The Securities and Exchange Commission will discuss reporting requirements at an open meeting on Wednesday.

 

The Senate Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government will hear from Yellen on the Treasury Department’s budget justification in a Wednesday hearing. 

 

United States Trade Representative Katherine Tai discusses “The President’s 2023 Trade Policy Agenda” in a Senate Finance Committee hearing Thursday

 

Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda Young will testify before the House Committee on the Budget on Thursday to discuss the president’s fiscal 2024 budget. She faced heat from the Senate over Social Security last week

 

Week in Review

M&A

First Republic eyed as next failure risk

  • On Friday, it was revealed that the nation’s largest banks would inject $30 billion in deposits into First Republic Bank in a move to stabilize the institution and shore up faltering confidence in the banking industry more broadly, a move that came together after discussions between bank executives, Washington regulators and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, people familiar with the matter told The Wall Street Journal.
  • That display of support did not reassure investors. See the Stat of the Week below to see how First Republic Bank’s shares moved in response to the rescue plan. 
  • On Wednesday, First Republic had said it was exploring strategic options, which could include the sale of the bank, people with knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg, after the bank was downgraded to junk status by Fitch and S&P Global Ratings this week.

Banking failure shockwaves cross the Atlantic

  • Credit Suisse’s battered shares recovered from a midweek dive after the Swiss National Bank agreed to provide up to 50 billion Swiss francs ($54 billion) in liquidity to the bank, giving Credit Suisse the funds to buy back about 3 billion Swiss francs’ worth of its debt, according to the Financial Times. 
  • The Treasury Department was reportedly working with the Fed and European regulators to review the exposure of U.S. banks to Credit Suisse after the bank’s shares fell by a record amount in a single day, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.

Too medium to fail?

Investigations

Consumer trust in banks

Washington’s response

  • Yellen told Senate lawmakers Thursday that there is no guarantee that all future uninsured bank deposits will be made whole by the U.S. government. As lawmakers pressed Yellen on whether the recent measures by the Biden administration to cover all uninsured deposits at SVB and Signature Bank could become a new norm, Yellen established that only uninsured deposits at banks that pose systemic risk to the financial system would be covered in the future. 
  • The New York Times reported that as Biden administration officials were putting together a bank depositor bailout late last week, they wanted to include language that placed blame for the recent banking collapses on shortcomings in banking regulations, according to several people involved in or close to the discussions, but Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed to have the language removed. In the joint statement released Sunday by the Fed, the Treasury and the FDIC, Powell wanted instead to focus on the actions designed to strengthen the financial system, such as guaranteeing SVB customers’ deposits, according to a person familiar with that matter.

Banks beef up their funds 

  • Last week, banks borrowed $164.8 billion from Federal Reserve funds, including a record $152.85 billion from the discount window and $11.9 billion from the Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program. The previous record of $111 billion in discount window borrowing was reached during the 2008 financial crisis. 
  • The Federal Home Loan Bank System was also said to have raised $88.7 billion in a sale of short-term notes, far more than the $64 billion previously planned, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

SVB parent company files for Chapter 11

  • SVB Financial Group, the parent company of Silicon Valley Bank, filed for bankruptcy on Friday. The bankruptcy protection request does not include Silicon Valley Bank, now operating under FDIC receivership as Silicon Valley Bridge Bank N.A., but the filing of the holding company may make the sale of its assets easier. 
 
Stat of the Week
 

32.8%

The drop in First Republic Bank shares on Friday after news of a $30 billion deposit injection by America’s largest banks failed to calm investors’ nerves about the stability of the institution. 

 
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