Morning Consult Finance: What’s Ahead & Week in Review




 


Finance

Essential financial news & intel to start your day.
May 7, 2023
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Good morning, finance readers.

 

I’d like to say we made it through another week without a banking collapse, but that was not the case. There’s a lot of news to catch up on, so I’ll get right into a quiz.

 

I’m keeping it light this week, with the question coming from our top-read stories list. What is the average annual salary that young adults said would make them feel as if they’ve finally “made it?”

 

A: $92,533

B: $121,553 

C: $153,121

D: $1,121,353

 

The answer key is at the bottom of this newsletter.

 

What’s Ahead

New York Fed President John Williams will give a keynote at the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday.

 

Fed Governor Christopher Waller will speak about financial stability and climate change at the Current Challenges in Economics & Finance conference in Madrid on Thursday.

 

Fed Governor Philip Jefferson, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and former Fed officials Richard Clarida and Randal Quarles will speak Friday at the Hoover Institution’s “How to Get Back on Track” policy conference.

 

Commissioner Hester Peirce of the Securities and Exchange Commission will speak at the Financial Times’ Crypto and Digital Assets Summit on Wednesday and will also participate on a panel at the Digital Monetary Institute Symposium on Thursday.

 

The House Financial Services Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy will hold a hearing Wednesday titled, “Federal Responses to Recent Bank Failures,” and the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations will hold a hearing Thursday to address the Government Accountability Office’s preliminary review of the oversight of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. 

 

A Senate Banking Committee executive session will vote on the nominations of Jared Bernstein as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, Ron Borzekowski as the Treasury Department’s director of financial research, and Solomon Jeffrey Greene and David Uejio as assistant secretaries of Housing and Urban Development. Following the executive session, there will be a hearing on cannabis banking.

 

A Minneapolis Fed event on Monday titled “Minimum Wage Increases: Recent Evidence and Policy Trade-Offs” will feature a panel discussion that includes  Laura Feiveson, the Treasury Department’s deputy assistant secretary for economic policy, and Rajesh Nayak, the Labor Department’s assistant secretary for policy

 

Week in Review

Bank turmoil not over yet

  • JPMorgan Chase & Co. agreed to acquire First Republic Bank in a deal that was orchestrated by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. after a weekend of bidding for the struggling bank. JPMorgan, which will share the burden of losses with the FDIC, will take on about $173 billion of loans, $30 billion of securities and $92 billion in deposits in the deal, making the country’s largest bank even bigger. (Bloomberg)
  • Trading in shares of PacWest Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp was halted Tuesday due to spikes in volatility as investor worries over the stability of U.S. regional banks drove broader selloffs in the S&P 500, and according to a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst, a bout of selling from hedge fund traders spurred selling even among long-only investors. (Bloomberg
  • PacWest and Western Alliance fell by more than 27% and 15% on Tuesday, respectively, while the KBW Regional Banking Index hit its lowest point since December 2020, falling 5.52%. (Reuters)
  • PacWest confirmed that it is in talks with investors to explore options, including a sale, after the stock fell as much as 60% amid lingering concerns about the stability of regional banks. (Bloomberg)
  • Another bout of volatility in regional bank stocks hit markets on Thursday, leading to halts on trading in shares of PacWest and Western Alliance, which fell by as much as 50% and 45%, respectively. (The Guardian
  • Western Alliance shares fell Thursday after the Financial Times reported that the bank was considering strategic options including a sale, but Stephanie Whitlow, Western Alliance’s chief marketing officer, told Bloomberg that “this story is absolutely false, there is no truth to this.” (Bloomberg)

Banking industry collapses and market volatility draw investigations from regulators

  • Amid an uptick in short-selling activity and share volatility, U.S. federal and state officials were said to be looking into whether market manipulation has played any role in banking equity fluctuations given strong fundamentals and capital levels in the sector, a source familiar with the matter said. (Reuters)
  • The SEC is looking into the conduct of executives from First Republic Bank before the government seized and sold the bank to JPMorgan, two people familiar with the matter said. (Bloomberg)
  • Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) sent a letter to Michael Roffler, the former chief executive of First Republic Bank, seeking more information on matters including management’s awareness of problems at the bank, executive pay and stock sales, as well as the bank’s lobbying activities in support of rules implemented in 2018 that rolled back regulations for mid-size banks. (The Wall Street Journal)
  • Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said it is providing information to and cooperating with “various governmental bodies” with regard to investigations into the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Goldman Sachs, which has been criticized for serving as both a buyer of SVB securities and as an adviser to SVB for a failed equity raise, said in a regulatory filing that regulators were looking into those relationships with SVB in or around March. (Financial Times)

Debt default X-date moves closer

  • Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the federal government could reach its borrowing limit on June 1 if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling, a shorter timeline than previously expected, and the Congressional Budget Office issued a separate estimate of “early June,” earlier than its previous forecast of July. (The Wall Street Journal
  • President Joe Biden invited top Republicans and Democrats to the White House to discuss congressional plans to deal with the approaching limit, and according to a source familiar with the matter, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) accepted the invitation to meet Tuesday. (CNN)

Rates rise, possibly to be paused

  • The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to approve the Fed’s 10th consecutive rate increase, bringing the benchmark federal-funds rate to between 5% and 5.25%, a 16-year high. The central bank signaled it may pause interest rate hikes going forward, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell saying “we feel like we’re getting closer or maybe even there.” (The Wall Street Journal)

SEC approves new rules

  • The SEC voted 3-2 along party lines to approve a rule that would require hedge funds and private-equity groups to disclose more information about events that signal stress or systemic risk as the rapidly growing industry becomes, as Chair Gary Gensler said, “ever more interconnected with our broader capital markets.” (Financial Times
  • The SEC also voted 3-2 along party lines to approve a rule that will require companies to provide increased disclosures, including daily tallies, about their stock buybacks, though the rule — which will take effect in the fourth quarter of this year — has drawn industry opposition and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has said it is considering legal action to block the new rule. (The Wall Street Journal)
 
Stat of the Week
 

68%

The share of U.S. adults in households making more than $100,000 a year who said their household would cover a $400 emergency expense using only cash or a cash equivalent, according to data from Morning Consult’s Quarterly Survey of Household Emergency Expenses and Decisionmaking.

 
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