Morning Consult Global: Leaked Documents Reveal Extensive U.S. Spy Efforts on Russia, Dire Ukrainian Air Defenses




 


Global

Essential news & intel on how business, politics and economics intersect around the world to start your day.
April 10, 2023
Twitter Email
 

Netanyahu Bled Support During Judicial Overhaul Fight

As if the massive protests that have wracked Israel every week for months were not proof enough, Morning Consult surveys show Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rapidly shed support during his sixth term in office. Even after pausing the judicial overhaul on March 27, Netanyahu lost 7 percentage points of approval, landing at 28% on April 4. Read more about Netanyahu’s dire political and legal situation in my latest: Netanyahu’s Approval Rating Plummets After Pausing Judicial Overhaul

 

Today’s Top News

  • A leaked trove of U.S. classified documents related to the war in Ukraine reveals Washington has extensively infiltrated Russian security and intelligence services, but also spies on close allies — to many of their chagrin, most notably South Korea — to assess their plans. (The New York Times) American intelligence gathering has given Kyiv the edge by forewarning of planned strikes and offensives, but the leaks also reveal that Ukraine is running perilously low on air defense munitions and its entire anti-air network could fracture without urgent deliveries from allies. (The New York Times)
  • China’s People’s Liberation Army conducted drills simulating a blockade of Taiwan and precision strikes on its cities in response to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s meeting with U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) in California last week. Notably, Beijing waited until French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had departed from their visit to China before commencing the drills. (Financial Times)
  • Saudi diplomats have arrived in Yemen’s capital Sana’a to begin negotiations with senior Houthi leaders and Omani moderators over ending the war, which has ravaged Yemen since 2015. Both sides reached a cease-fire last year, which has since expired, but fighting has not resumed and Houthi official Mohamed Al Bukaiti said “it is clear that an atmosphere of peace is taking hold.” (Financial Times)
  • Tensions in Israel spiked once again following a rare rocket attack from Syria, leading to retaliatory Israeli airstrikes during a sensitive holiday weekend for all three major Abrahamic faiths. (The Associated Press)

 

Happening today (all times Eastern):

 

 

Chart Review



 
 

What Else You Need To Know

Multilateral
 

The World Bank Is Getting a New Chief. Will He Pivot Toward Climate Action?

David Gelles and Alan Rappeport, The New York Times 

Under pressure from world leaders, development experts and shareholders, the bank opens its spring meeting on Monday, poised for big changes.

 

What to Know About the Leaked U.S. Intelligence Reports

Eric Nagourney, The New York Times 

Many questions remain about the classified documents that have been dribbling onto the web.

 

Red Cross confirms contact with Russia about Ukrainian kids

Edith M. Lederer, The Associated Press

The International Committee of the Red Cross says it has been in contact with a Russian official suspected of war crimes as it works for the return of Ukrainian children who were deported to Russia.

 

TSMC Posts First Revenue Drop in Nearly Four Years

Kosaku Narioka, The Wall Street Journal

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. said Monday that its revenue fell 15% in March from a year earlier, marking the first drop in nearly four years.

 
Asia-Pacific
 

Leaked Documents Show Seoul Torn Between U.S. Demands and Its Own Policy

Choe Sang-hun, The New York Times 

When reports emerged late last year that South Korea had agreed to sell artillery shells to help the United States replenish its stockpiles, it insisted that their “end user” should be the U.S. military. But internally, top aides to President Yoon Suk Yeol were worried that their American ally would divert them to Ukraine.

 

Pakistan’s economic crisis puts healthcare costs out of reach

Farhan Bokhari and Benjamin Parkin, Financial Times 

Soaring inflation and falling foreign currency reserves are creating shortages of imported drugs.

 

Pakistan’s arrest of anti-China militant felt from Beijing to Tehran

Adnan Aamir, Nikkei Asia 

Islamabad aims to secure Belt and Road as it vows new campaign against terror.

 

Can Thailand’s Democrat Party survive upcoming election?

Toru Takahashi, Nikkei Asia 

Opposition alienates voters by cozying up to military and boycotting polls.

 

US warship sails near manmade Chinese-controlled isle

Reuters 

A U.S. Navy destroyer sailed near one of the most important man-made and Chinese controlled islands in the South China Sea on Monday, in a freedom of navigation mission that Beijing denounced as illegal.

 

Indonesia to propose limited free trade deal with US on critical minerals

Stefanno Sulaiman, Reuters 

Indonesia will propose a free trade agreement for some minerals shipped to the United States so that companies in the electric vehicle battery supply chain operating in the country can benefit from U.S. tax credits, a senior minister said on Monday.

 

Beijing chooses targets carefully as it goes on offensive in US chip wars

Eleanor Olcott and Richard Waters, Financial Times 

Analysts see memory-chip maker Micron as obvious first choice but say China will tread cautiously on further retaliation.

 

China Sentences Leading Rights Activists to 14 and 12 Years in Prison

Vivian Wang, The New York Times 

Xu Zhiyong and Ding Jiaxi were detained after organizing a small seaside gathering of activists to discuss human rights. Their lengthy sentences point to Beijing’s intolerance of dissent.

 
Europe
 

Ukraine Says Russia Is Preparing to Evacuate Civilians From Occupied Areas of South

Matthew Mpoke Bigg and Yurii Shyvala, The New York Times 

Ukraine is widely expected to launch a counteroffensive in the coming weeks to recapture territory from Russian forces. Some Ukrainian officials say it could focus on the south of the country.

 

Fight for Roads Into Bakhmut Has Hit a Stalemate, Ukraine Says

Andrew E. Kramer, The New York Times 

Even as Russian forces made some gains in the battered eastern city last week, Ukraine’s forces say they have thwarted Moscow’s efforts to sever supply lines. For now.

 

Europe Has Pledged a Million Shells for Ukraine in a Year. Can It Deliver?

Lara Jakes, The New York Times 

Probably not, experts say, given the shrunken state of its military industrial sector. A look at a major munitions maker helps explain why.

 

WSJ Reporter’s Detention Spotlights the Rise of Arrests by Authoritarian Regimes

Vivian Salama and Nancy A Youssef, The Wall Street Journal

The Evan Gershkovich case reflects a growing practice in which Americans are arrested to obtain concessions from the U.S.

 

Ireland Readies a Warm Welcome for Biden, ‘the Most Irish’ President Since J.F.K.

Ed O’Loughlin, The New York Times 

Ahead of President Biden’s trip to Ireland, the locals of two towns, including several of his relatives, are hoping he’ll return to celebrate their ancestral ties.

 
Latin America
 

El Salvador Decimated Its Ruthless Gangs. But at What Cost?

Natalie Kitroeff, The New York Times 

In the year since El Salvador declared a state of emergency, the government has delivered a stunning blow to the gangs that were once the ultimate authority in much of the country.

 

Haiti gang ambushes, kills 3 policemen as violence soars

The Associated Press

A gang near Haiti’s capital ambushed and killed three police officers on Sunday in the latest attack against an under-resourced and underfunded police department that has reported nearly two dozen officers slain so far this year, according to authorities.

 

Brazil workers’ movement steps up land invasions under Lula government 

Bryan Harris and Carolina Ingizza, Financial Times 

Surge in ‘occupations’ by radical group with ties to leftwing president alarms farmers and conservative politicians.

 
Middle East and Africa
 

U.S. Sends Attack Submarine to Middle East

Farnaz Fassihi et al., The New York Times 

Officials said the move was meant as a deterrent against Iran and to maintain the stability of one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes.

 

Israel’s Efforts to Expand Arab Relations Slow Over Recent Turmoil

Dion Nissenbaum, The Wall Street Journal

Middle East governments are lodging complaints over conflict with Palestinians and Netanyahu’s far-right coalition.

 

Israel Denies Leaked Claim That Mossad Encouraged Protest 

Ronen Bergman et al., The New York Times 

The Israeli government issued a statement on Sunday firmly rejecting assertions contained in the leaked Pentagon documents that the leadership of the Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence service, had encouraged the agency’s staff and Israeli citizens to participate in the anti-government protests that roiled the country in March.

 

At least 44 people killed by jihadis in Burkina Faso’s north

Sam Mednick, The Associated Press

At least 44 people were killed by Islamic extremists in multiple attacks in northern Burkina Faso, the government said Saturday.

 

U.S. Seeks Ways to Help Burkina Faso’s Military Junta Fight Jihadists

Michael M Phillips, The Wall Street Journal

Officials want to counter Islamists, but U.S. law bans most security aid to military regimes.

 

Gunfire, protests in Ethiopia’s Amhara over plan to disband regional force 

Dawit Endeshaw, Reuters 

Gunfire was heard in at least two towns in Ethiopia’s Amhara region on Sunday as thousands protested against a federal government order to integrate regional special forces into the police or national army, residents said.

 

Mayor: At least 22 people killed by rebels in eastern Congo

Justin Kabumba, The Associated Press

At least 22 civilians were killed by extremist rebels in eastern Congo – the group’s second large-scale deadly attack of the week, local authorities said Saturday.

 

At least 30 people killed by gunmen in Nigeria attacks

Dyepkazah Shibayan, The Associated Press

At least 30 people were killed in an attack on an internally displaced person’s camp in north-central Nigeria, the second major attack in the area this week, authorities said Saturday.

 

Ghana’s bilateral creditors set to clear way for $3bn IMF bailout 

Jonathan Wheatley and Aanu Adeoye, Financial Times 

Accra’s finance minister is optimistic foreign governments will agree on debt relief deal.

 
North America
 

GOP embraces a new foreign policy: Bomb Mexico to stop fentanyl

Alexander Ward, Politico

Republicans suggest everything from terrorist labels to an invasion to decimate drug cartels in Mexico.

 

US to test expedited asylum screenings at Mexico border 

Rebecca Santana and Elliot Spagat, The Associated Press

Migrants who enter the United States illegally will be screened by asylum officers while in custody under a limited experiment that provides them access to legal counsel, the Department of Homeland Security said Friday.

 







Morning Consult