What to Look for in the Aftermath of the G-7 Summit
The Group of Seven summit in Hiroshima ended with a strong joint statement underlining the sense of unity among the world’s most prosperous democracies on maintaining the international liberal order amid growing challenges from China and Russia. I reached out to Yuko Nakano, Japan chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, via email with a few questions about what to watch next regarding the Biden administration’s strategy in the Indo-Pacific, lightly edited and condensed for clarity below.
Matthew Kendrick: Folks reading headlines from the G-7 might be surprised to see Biden so optimistic about a thaw with China after Beijing reacted quite vigorously to the summit, particularly the language around Taiwan. Can you help us square that contrast a bit? Is there scope for de-escalation?
Yuko Nakano: The leaders’ communiqué encompasses firm language regarding China, covering issues such as economic coercion, Taiwan and human rights abuses. At the same time, the U.S. and others seem to be signaling that it’s also important to maintain open communication, keeping engaged with China. In fact, leaders, including President Biden and other U.S. government officials, have been adopting the term “de-risking” instead of “decoupling” to describe their approach toward China.
We have seen some efforts to re-engage, including the upcoming meeting between China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao and U.S. Commerce Secretary Raimondo and U.S. Trade Representative Tai in Washington this week – all necessary groundwork leading up to a potential principal meeting between President Biden and President Xi.
MK: Biden invited Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol to join him in Washington for another trilateral meeting, after their meeting in Hiroshima seemed to go well by all three sides’ accounts but didn’t produce any concrete agreements. What should we be looking for in the run up to the Washington summit, particularly in terms of missile and nuclear security?
YN: In the context of the bilateral relationship between South Korea and Japan, the Korean government began the process of restoring the General Security of Military Information Agreement, which enables the two countries to share military intelligence. This development holds importance within the context of trilateral cooperation as the three governments have been negotiating an agreement on sharing real-time data on North Korean missile launches.
Additionally, down the line, they are also expected to expand cooperation in bolstering supply chain resilience and other areas in the Indo-Pacific region.
MK: Kishida and Biden of course did not get to have their Quad summit in Australia due to the debt ceiling negotiations here in the United States, and some commentators are arguing this cancellation shakes allied confidence. Do you think Tokyo is concerned at all by its most important ally’s struggles to fund its own spending?
YN: While Tokyo does keep domestic developments in mind, it does not overshadow their overall thinking. U.S. presidents, including Mr. Biden, have shown confidence and understanding towards their Japanese counterparts when they faced political hurdles at home, and kept their focus on the shared strategic visions and what they can achieve together. I am sure Mr. Kishida is doing the same.
Although President Biden had to cancel the second leg of his Asia trip, and some argue that it was a missed opportunity, what matters now is how the United States will build upon the efforts already set forth by the Biden Administration. I believe the United States will continue to vigorously engage with its allies and partners, demonstrating its commitment to fostering a strong, stable, and prosperous Indo-Pacific region.
And here are today’s top stories:
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) reportedly told Republican lawmakers behind closed doors that negotiations with the White House over raising the debt ceiling are “nowhere close” to producing an agreement with just over one week remaining before a potential debt default. Any deal would likely need to be struck several days before the early June deadline in order to give Congress time to pass the legislation, meaning a default is still possible even if a major breakthrough occurs soon. (Financial Times)
Pakistan’s government is considering banning former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Tehreek-e-Insaf party, alleging that it attacked the state during mass uprisings in protest to Khan’s arrest on May 9. The decision is likely to enrage supporters and may itself lead to violence. (Reuters)
Israel’s top general said Iran’s uranium enrichment activities could precipitate an Israeli military response after the Associated Press reported that Iran was building a new underground enrichment site in the Zagros mountains. (Reuters) Iran maintains that its nuclear program is peaceful and said it would cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency on any “new activities” following the publication of the report. (The Associated Press)
Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador admitted that he knew his own top human rights official was being spied on but said he told the official not to worry about it. It is not clear who is responsible for installing Pegasus spyware on the official’s phone, but the only entity in Mexico that has access to the Israeli-made software is its military, which the official was investigating at the time. (The New York Times)
