• Biden administration officials said there had been a 50% decrease in the number of migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border over the weekend following the expiration of Title 42. However, Blas Nuñez-Neto, a Department of Homeland Security official, said it was too early to draw conclusions and that smugglers would continue to spread disinformation encouraging migrants to cross. (Los Angeles Times)
• Syrian leader Bashar Assad has been invited to attend the COP28 climate summit in Dubai by the United Arab Emirates, in what would be Assad’s first global summit in over a decade. Western governments are sure to be uncomfortable with his invitation, but a bloc of Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia is working hard to politically rehabilitate Damascus. (Financial Times)  
• Russian authorities have arrested Robert Shonov, a former employee of the U.S. Embassy in Russia, and charged him with conspiracy, according to state media.  Shonov’s nationality was not identified in the report. (The New York Times)
• The European Union’s chief diplomat said the bloc should crack down on importing Indian fuel refined from Russian oil, as it seeks to close loopholes in Russian energy import sanctions. (Financial Times)

Happening today (all times Eastern):

• 2 p.m. Secretaries of Defense, State and Commerce testify on China.

Turkey Election Maps: Why Erdogan Is Headed For a Runoff

The New York Times

G7 host Japan seeks unity on threat from China

Kana Inagaki et al., Financial Times 

Hiroshima summit tests advanced economies’ ability to jointly respond to challenge from Beijing.

UN efforts to save Black Sea grain deal to continue in coming days

Michelle Nichols, Reuters 

The U.N. aid chief said on Monday efforts will continue in coming days to extend a deal allowing the safe Black Sea export of Ukraine grain, a pact Russia has threatened to quit on May 18 over obstacles to its grain and fertilizer exports.

World Leaders Warily Watch U.S. Debt-Limit Standoff

Andrew Duehren, The Wall Street Journal

Political fight in Washington looms over meetings of Western allies in Japan.

US and EU step up efforts to co-ordinate sanctions policies

James Politi, Financial Times 

Officials set to commit to working more closely on measures ‘to address shared foreign policy goals’.

South Korea and Japan use G-7 to push improvement in ties long marked by animosity

Foster Klug et al., The Associated Press 

Amid the high-level efforts to deal with a raft of global emergencies, this weekend’s Group of 7 summit of rich democracies will also see an unusual diplomatic reconciliation as the leaders of Japan and South Korea look to continue mending ties that have been marked for years by animosity and bickering.

South Korea’s president vows to expand non-lethal aid to Kyiv in meeting with Ukraine’s first lady

Kim Tong-hyung, The Associated Press

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol vowed to expand the country’s non-lethal aid to Kyiv when he met with Ukraine’s first lady Tuesday in Seoul.

Cambodia Disqualifies Main Opposition Party Ahead of Election

Seth Mydans, The New York Times 

Prime Minister Hun Sen, whose grip on power has lasted 38 years, has said he wants his son to succeed him, laying the groundwork for a new political dynasty.

China’s Youth Unemployment Tops 20% Amid Signs of Stalling Recovery

Stella Yifan Xie, The Wall Street Journal

Retail sales, factory activity and fixed-asset investment all fell short of expectations, fueling chatter of monetary stimulus.

In European Tour, Zelensky Reaps Billions More in Promised Military Aid

Mark Landler, The New York Times 

His trips to Britain, Germany, France and Italy demonstrated the shifting political landscape when it comes to supporting Kyiv, as concerns grow about U.S. backing as the presidential election looms.

Russia launches ‘exceptional’ air attack on Kyiv as Europe, China look to exert influence

Samya Kullab, The Associated Press 

Ukrainian air defenses thwarted an intense Russian air attack on Kyiv early Tuesday, shooting down all 18 missiles aimed at the capital, officials said.

Council of Europe summit in Iceland seeks to hold Russia to account for Ukraine war

David Keyton and Raf Casert, The Associated Press

Leaders from across the continent were heading toward Iceland early Tuesday for a rare summit of the 46-nation Council of Europe that will once more step up support for member state Ukraine and condemn expelled Russia for inflicting war on its neighbor.

Russia’s defence spending jumped 282% y/y to $26 bln in Jan-Feb -budget data

Darya Korsunskaya, Reuters 

Russia spent 2 trillion roubles ($26 billion) on defence in January and February alone, a 282% jump on the same period a year ago, data on the budget portal showed, illustrating the spiralling costs for Moscow of its conflict in Ukraine.

Belarus opposition told to ‘be ready’ for democracy push as rumours of leader’s ill health swirl

Andrew Osborn, Reuters 

Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya told her supporters on Monday to be ready to grab any chance to turn her country into a democracy as speculation about the health of veteran President Alexander Lukashenko swirled.

Political pushback puts brakes on Brussels’ green agenda

Sam Fleming et al., Financial Times 

European Commission chief says EU needs to assess its capacity to absorb multiple new environmental laws.

NATO nations split over Ukraine membership before Vilnius summit 

Missy Ryan and Emily Rauhala, The Washington Post 

Discussions have intensified in the weeks before President Biden and other NATO leaders gather to cement plans for strengthening the alliance’s defenses against Russia.

Colombian rebel leader says peace talks are ‘on pause’

Manuel Rueda, The Associated Press

Colombian rebel leader Pablo Beltran said on Monday that peace talks between his National Liberation Army and the government have been put “on pause” due to remarks made last week by President Gustavo Petro.

UN chief in Jamaica urges international response to Haiti’s spiraling crisis

Dánica Coto, The Associated Press

U.N. Secretary General António Guterres warned Monday that Haiti’s “tragic situation” is threatening the security of the Caribbean region and beyond as he pressed the international community for a response.

Ecuador’s president set to face impeachment trial

Joe Daniels, Financial Times 

Guillermo Lasso has been accused of embezzlement in the latest challenge to his presidency of Andean nation.

Bukele fans went to admire El Salvador’s gang crackdown — and got arrested

Samantha Schmidt and Diana Durán, The Washington Post 

From his small town in rural Colombia, José Antonio Potes watched the videos with interest. A foreign leader claimed he had defeated the violent gangs that had terrorized a country considered one of the world’s most dangerous.

Brazil’s Speaker vows to stop Lula going ‘backward’ on reform

Michael Pooler and Michael Stott, Financial Times 

Powerful leader of Brazil’s lower house tells FT he will defend market-friendly laws.

Erdoğan’s ‘unsustainable’ policy risks lira sell-off, warn rating agencies 

Adam Samson, Financial Times 

Investors increasingly concerned over Turkish president’s insistence that low interest rates cure inflation.

Biden backs ‘whoever wins’ in Turkish election

Nahal Toosi and Ari Hawkins, Politico

Turkey’s presidential race is heading to a runoff in which longtime leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has the advantage.

Nigeria election: The mystery of the altered results in disputed poll

Chiagozie Nwonwu et al., BBC News

A BBC investigation has found evidence suggesting some results from Nigeria’s presidential election may have been manipulated.

U.S. imposes election-related visa restrictions on Nigerians

Doina Chiacu, Reuters 

The United States has imposed entry restrictions on more Nigerians for undermining the democratic process during the African nation’s 2023 election cycle, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday.

Tunisia sentences opposition leader Ghannouchi to a year in prison

AFP via France24 

A Tunisian court on Monday sentenced Rached Ghannouchi, one of the main opponents of Tunisian President Kais Saied, to a year in prison on terrorism-related charges, local media reported. 

S Africa army chief visits Moscow in wake of US weapons claim

Al Jazeera 

Visit to Moscow follows US allegations that weapons were loaded on to a Russian ship in Cape Town in December.

A police station or a high school? Deadly clashes in Senegal as locals and gendarmes dispute land use 

Lise Kiennemann, France24

Violent clashes between the gendarmerie and the Lebu community erupted on May 8 and 9 in Ngor, a district of Senegal’s capital Dakar. The conflict began over a land dispute: the gendarmes want a police station while locals want to build a high school. According to four eyewitnesses who spoke to the FRANCE 24 Observers team, the gendarmes fired live bullets during protests. A 15-year-old girl lost her life, in circumstances that remain under investigation.

Yellen Says Treasury Still Expects U.S. Could Default as Soon as June 1

Andrew Duehren, The Wall Street Journal

The new warning from the Treasury chief lines up with previous forecasts.

Biden administration announces $11 billion for rural clean energy projects

Leah Douglas, Reuters 

Rural electric cooperatives, utilities, and other energy providers will soon be able to apply for nearly $11 billion in grants and loans for clean energy projects, funded by the $430 billion Inflation Reduction Act signed into law last August, the Biden administration said on Tuesday.

US executives call for immigration reform to staff manufacturing boom

Amanda Chu and Alex Irwin-Hunt, Financial Times 

Clean energy and chip companies say they need influx of foreign labour for Biden’s re-industrialisation effort.