• Top Biden administration officials sought to calm anger in allied capitals following the leak of classified military and intelligence documents, with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin saying they have spoken to their Ukrainian counterparts amid fears that it could give Russia an advantage as Kyiv prepares for a crucial spring offensive. U.S. officials say some of the leaked information appears to be fabricated, and South Korean, Emirati and Egyptian officials have also asserted that leaked documents that touch on their interests contain false information. (The New York Times)
• In its latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund warned of a “hard landing” for the global economy should inflation persist, keeping key interest rates higher for longer and straining financial resilience. (Financial Times)
• Both Russia and Ukraine are tightening their conscription schemes to maximize available military personnel ahead of Kyiv’s expected spring offensive. Russia passed legislation that’s expected to make dodging the draft much more difficult, while Kyiv changed rules about serving draft summonses to better address the fact that so many young men have been displaced from their registered places of residence. (Financial Times)
• Airstrikes launched by Myanmar’s military junta in the northwestern Sagaing region during a ceremony inaugurating a local anti-junta administration are believed to have killed more than 50 people. The junta has increasingly used air power to attack rural villages that cooperate with the pro-democracy faction, and calls are growing to restrict the export of aviation fuel to Myanmar. (Nikkei Asia)

Happening today (all times Eastern):

• 2 p.m. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy joins the World Bank for its Third Ministerial Roundtable Discussion for Support to Ukraine, alongside IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, World Bank President David Malpass and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. 

The price cap on Russian oil seems to be working

Axios

Increasing Export Restrictions on Critical Minerals Threaten Energy Transition, OECD Says

Yusuf Khan, The Wall Street Journal 

Raw materials such as cobalt and lithium have seen availability drop and prices rise—export restrictions may be playing a role.

New Spyware Firm Said to Have Helped Hack iPhones Around the Globe

Dustin Volz and Robert McMillan, The Wall Street Journal

Tools linked to QuaDream of Israel highlight continued use of secret software.

Seoul accuses critics of using ‘forged’ US reports as anti-alliance ‘propaganda’

Jeongmin Kim, NK News 

Presidential office says claims of wiretapping based on leaked documents shake alliance as North Korean threats grow.

UN to review presence in Afghanistan following Taliban ban

The Associated Press

The United Nations said Tuesday it is reviewing its presence in Afghanistan after the Taliban barred Afghan women from working for the world organization — a veiled suggestion the U.N. could move to suspend its mission and operations in the embattled country.

China warns as US, Philippines stage combat drills

Jim Gomez, The Associated Press

China warned on Wednesday that a deepening security alliance between the United States and the Philippines should not harm its security and territorial interests and interfere in long-simmering territorial disputes in the South China Sea.

South Korea to lend 500,000 rounds of artillery shells to US -report

Hyonhee Shin, Reuters 

South Korea has reached an agreement to lend the United States 500,000 rounds of 155mm artillery shells that could give Washington greater flexibility to supply Ukraine with ammunition, a South Korean newspaper reported on Wednesday.

Japan signs $2.8B long-range missile development deals

Mari Yamaguchi, The Associated Press

Japan’s Defense Ministry announced Tuesday it has signed contracts worth nearly 380 billion yen ($2.8 billion) with the country’s top defense contractor, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, to develop and mass produce long-range missiles for deployment as early as 2026 amid growing fears of China’s increasing military strength.

​​Japan and India to organize Sri Lanka creditors meeting

Daichi Mishima, Nikkei Asia 

Successful resolution could serve as model for future debt restructuring.

Bangladesh deep-sea port promises strategic anchor for Japan, India

Faisal Mahmud, Nikkei Asia 

New Delhi’s influence in Dhaka helps foil Chinese plans for similar foothold.

Taiwan’s ruling party taps VP as presidential candidate

The Associated Press

Taiwan’s pro-independence ruling Democratic Progressive Party nominated Vice President Lai Ching-te as its candidate in the 2024 presidential election, two days after China concluded large-scale wargames around the self-governed island.

China Seeks to Write Its Own History of Battle With Covid-19

Wenxin Fan and Shen Lu, The Wall Street Journal

Beijing is withholding data, censoring debate as it promotes narrative of triumph on how it handled the virus.

Ukraine war: Leak shows Western special forces on the ground

Paul Adams and George Wright, BBC News 

The UK is among a number of countries with military special forces operating inside Ukraine, according to one of dozens of documents leaked online.

Germany can’t fulfill NATO obligations, says army chief in leaked memo

Gabriel Rinaldi, Politico

A division promised to the transatlantic military alliance isn’t fully battle-ready.

Hungary Sees U.S. Among Top Three Adversaries, Purported Leaked CIA Document Says

Thomas Grove, The Wall Street Journal 

Intelligence update sees ‘an escalation of the level of anti-American rhetoric’.

Exclusive: Leaked U.S. intel document claims Serbia agreed to arm Ukraine

Jonathan Landay and Aleksandar Vasovic, Reuters 

Serbia, the only country in Europe that has refused to sanction Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, agreed to supply arms to Kyiv or has sent them already, according to a classified Pentagon document.

Europe’s eastern half claps back at Macron: We need the US

Jacopo Barigazzi, Politico

The French president’s comments to POLITICO about not being drawn into a US-China conflict rattled easterners who favor closer ties with the Americans.

Biden to tout economic growth as dividend of N Ireland peace

Darlene Superville et al., The Associated Press

President Joe Biden is in Northern Ireland on Wednesday to participate in marking the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, which brought peace to this part of the United Kingdom, as a new political crisis tests the strength of that peace.

Brazil’s Lula visits China, seeking ties and Ukraine support 

Eléonore Hughes and Carla Bridi, The Associated Press

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva flew off to China on Tuesday to strengthen ties with his nation’s biggest trade partner and win support for his long shot push for peace in Ukraine.

Mexican immigration agency chief to be charged in fatal fire

Fabiola Sánchez et al., The Associated Press

Mexico’s top immigration official will face criminal charges in a fire that killed 40 migrants in Ciudad Juarez last month, with federal prosecutors saying he was remiss in not preventing the disaster despite earlier indications of problems at his agency’s detention centers.

US, Panama and Colombia aim to stop Darien Gap migration

Kathia Martínez, The Associated Press

The United States, Panama and Colombia announced Tuesday that they will launch a 60-day campaign aimed at halting illegal migration through the treacherous Darien Gap, where the flow of migrants has multiplied this year.

Egypt Denies Report on Leaked Document That Said It Planned to Ship Arms to Russia

Vivian Yee and Vivian Nereim, The New York Times 

A classified U.S. intelligence document among those that leaked on the internet earlier this year describes an Egyptian plan to secretly produce rockets, artillery rounds and gunpowder for Russia.

Exclusive: Russia starts fuel supplies to Iran by rail -sources

Reuters 

Russia started fuel exports to Iran by rail this year for the first time after traditional buyers shunned trade with Moscow, according to three industry sources and exports data.

Iran in secret talks with China, Russia to acquire sanctioned missile fuel

Matthew Karnitschnig, Politico

Diplomats fear Tehran could help replenish Moscow’s depleted missile stocks.

Exclusive: Iran exploits earthquake relief mission to fly weapons to Syria
Suleiman Al-Khalidi et al., Reuters 

Iran has used earthquake relief flights to bring weapons and military equipment into its strategic ally Syria, nine Syrian, Iranian, Israeli and Western sources said.

Armenia, Azerbaijan forces clash; at least 7 soldiers killed

The Associated Press

Military forces from Armenia and Azerbaijan clashed Tuesday along their border and at least seven soldiers were killed, according to the countries’ defense ministries.

‘They’ve screwed the economy’: Turkey’s heartland voters tire of Erdoğan

Adam Samson, Financial Times 

Faith in the veteran leader is dwindling but does not necessarily translate into support for the opposition.

US praises Yemen progress in call with Saudi crown prince

Al Jazeera 

US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan praised the peace efforts and offered ‘full US support for those efforts’.

Syria and Tunisia restore diplomatic ties after a decade

The Associated Press

Syria will reopen its embassy in Tunisia after the North African country announced the appointment of a new ambassador to Damascus, Syrian state media reported Wednesday.

U.S. Officials in Moscow Haven’t Been Allowed to Visit WSJ Reporter Evan Gershkovich

Louise Radnofsky and William Mauldin, The Wall Street Journal

Russian authorities have been slow to grant consular access in other cases of detained Americans.

White House announces increased sanctions to combat fentanyl trafficking

Matt Berg, Politico

The push comes as lawmakers propose taking military action against Mexico.

Dollar slips ahead of U.S. inflation data

Rae Wee and Joice Alves, Reuters 

The dollar dipped on Wednesday with investors expecting U.S. inflation data out later in the day to hold some clues on how soon U.S. interest rates will peak.

Ukrainian hackers say they have compromised Russian spy who hacked Democrats in 2016

Raphael Satter, Reuters 

Ukrainian hackers claim to have broken into the emails of a senior Russian military spy wanted by the Federal Bureau of Investigation for hacking the Hillary Clinton campaign and other senior U.S. Democrats ahead of Donald Trump’s election to the presidency in 2016.