Morning Consult Washington, Presented by the Walton Family Foundation: Biden Announces Re-Election Bid as Trump Posts Biggest GOP Primary Lead Yet




 


Washington

Essential U.S. political news & intel to start your day.
April 25, 2023
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​​Trump Seen as More Electable Than DeSantis

Despite a relatively poor record of electoral success during the past three election cycles, a majority of potential Republican primary voters say former President Donald Trump has the best chance of beating President Joe Biden in the 2024 general election, compared with about 1 in 4 who say Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. College-educated primary voters are more likely than those without a degree to say that DeSantis has a better chance of beating Biden next year. Read more from Cameron Easley, Morning Consult’s lead analyst for U.S. politics: Republican Primary Voters Think Trump Is More Electable Than DeSantis.

 

Today’s Top News

  • Biden released a video announcing that he will run for re-election, casting his campaign as one to defend Americans’ fundamental rights and to protect democracy against the threat he sees in Trump. (The New York Times) After selecting Julie Chavez Rodriguez as his campaign manager and Quentin Fulks as her deputy, his campaign is poised to buy television ad time this week to begin presenting his re-election message to the electorate. (The Washington Post)

    • According to our latest tracking, Biden has a 1-point lead over Trump and a 4-point lead over DeSantis in hypothetical head-to-head matchups against his top Republican rivals. (Morning Consult)
  • Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis said she will announce between July 11 and Sept. 1 whether her office will charge Trump and his allies with crimes related to attempts to overturn Biden’s 2020 victory in Georgia, setting up another potential indictment for the GOP’s 2024 front-runner. (The Atlanta Journal-Constitution)
  • House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) said Republican leaders will reject calls from rank-and-file lawmakers to change their debt-limit legislation ahead of a floor vote this week. Reps. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), Eli Crane (R-Ariz.), Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Chip Roy (R-Texas) are reportedly among the current holdouts, and House GOP leaders have only four votes to spare. (Politico)
  • Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) asked Texas billionaire Harlan Crow to provide his committee with details about the gifts he provided to Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas by May 8. (The Washington Post) Thomas has said he did not disclose the gifts because the GOP donor “did not have business before the court,” but a review of cases involving Crow’s company found that in at least one case he did. (Bloomberg)

 

Happening today (all in ET):

 

Chart Review



 
 

What Else You Need To Know

White House & Administration
 

Susan Rice to Step Down as Biden’s Domestic Policy Adviser
Zolan Kanno-Youngs and Eileen Sullivan, The New York Times

Susan Rice, President Biden’s domestic policy adviser, will step down next month after overseeing some of the administration’s most polarizing issues, including immigration, gun control and student loan relief, the White House announced on Monday.

 

Biden’s next student loan headache: A cash crunch at the Education Department
Michael Stratford, Politico

Administration officials prepare for “unprecedented” restart of student loan payments amid customer service rollbacks.

 

US helping from afar as Americans flee fighting in Sudan
Zeke Miller et al., The Associated Press

The White House said Monday the U.S. is helping from afar as thousands of Americans left behind in Sudan seek to escape fighting in the east African nation, after the U.S. Embassy evacuated all of its diplomatic personnel over the weekend and shut down.

 

Biden Plans to Slash Planet-Warming Pollution from Power Plants
Jennifer A Dlouhy, Bloomberg

The Biden administration is preparing to propose limits on greenhouse gas emissions from coal- and gas-fired power plants that are so stringent they could almost wipe out the US electricity sector’s planet-warming pollution by 2040.

 

Biden threatens veto on measure to restore solar tariffs
Benjamin J. Hulac, Roll Call

President Joe Biden pledged to veto a joint resolution that would nullify waivers the Commerce Department issued for solar-energy materials coming to the U.S. from China through four Southeast Asian countries.

 

Commerce Dept. Outlines Its Bid to Fund Cutting-Edge Chip Research
Ana Swanson and Don Clark, The New York Times

The Biden administration announced its strategy for the National Semiconductor Technology Center, a string of facilities aimed at propelling U.S. innovation.

 
Congress
 

Homeland Security sets Wednesday markup for border package
Max Cohen, Punchbowl News

The second half of the House Republican immigration and border security package is moving along, and it’s much better news for the party’s moderate flank. While moderates such as Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) pushed back strongly against the House Judiciary Committee’s immigration bill, Gonzales is a key architect of the House Homeland Security Committee’s package.

 

Schumer announces Senate will vote on the Equal Rights Amendment this week
Mariana Alfaro, The Washington Post

The latest vote comes 100 years after it was first introduced in Congress.

 

Biden district Republicans hold their fire on debt ceiling bill
Lindsey McPherson et al., Roll Call

Swing district Republicans are thus far defending their party’s bill pairing hefty spending cuts with a $1.5 trillion debt limit increase that’s expected on the House floor later this week.

 

Why is Jamaal Bowman so angry?
Kadia Goba, Semafor

Earlier this month, Rep. Jamaal Bowman walked outside of the House chamber and barked at reporters with an assignment: Ask Republicans “why the hell you won’t do anything to save America’s children.”

 
General
 

Tucker Carlson and Don Lemon’s Same-Day Demise
Shawn McCreesh, New York

Two cable news divas finally get kicked to the curb.

 

Tucker Carlson’s Surprise Exit Stuns People in Donald Trump’s Orbit
Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman, The New York Times

The former president and Tucker Carlson are said to have been on friendlier terms lately, after embarrassing disclosures in Dominion’s suit against Fox News.

 

Starting Tuesday, Trump will stand trial in a lawsuit accusing him of rape
Erica Orden, Politico

Less that one month after being indicted on charges related to a hush money payment to a porn star, former President Donald Trump is about to stand trial in a civil lawsuit from a magazine columnist who says he raped her decades ago.

 

COVID response exposed “collective national incompetence,” commission says
Arielle Dreher, Axios

A group of crisis experts and federal advisers conclude in a report out today that a lack of disaster preparedness and coordination led to an unraveling of the nation’s pandemic response, and that the crisis exposed a “collective national incompetence in governance.”

 

U.S. Supreme Court to decide if public officials can block critics on social media
John Kruzel, Reuters

The U.S. Supreme Court, exploring free speech rights in the social media era, on Monday agreed to consider whether the Constitution’s First Amendment bars government officials from blocking their critics on platforms like Facebook and Twitter.

 

Supreme Court deals blow to oil companies by turning away climate cases
Lawrence Hurley, NBC News

The Supreme Court on Monday allowed lawsuits brought by municipalities seeking to hold energy companies accountable for climate change to move forward in a loss for business interests.

 

Iran gained access to election results website in 2020, military reveals
Joseph Menn, The Washington Post

The U.S. military discovered that an Iranian hacking group had penetrated a local government website that was to report 2020 election results and disrupted the attack before the votes were tallied, officials revealed Monday during a conference of cybersecurity professionals.

 
Campaigns
 

GOP Gov. Jim Justice set to launch bid for Joe Manchin’s Senate seat in West Virginia this week
Kevin Breuninger, CNBC

West Virginia’s Republican Gov. Jim Justice is gearing up to launch a 2024 Senate campaign this week, mounting a possible challenge to Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin in one of the country’s most important Senate races, a Republican source close to the governor told CNBC on Monday.

 

Trump Is Endorsed by a Senator With Sway on Republican Donors
Jonathan Swan et al., The New York Times

Steve Daines of Montana, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, cited the former president’s accomplishments on issues like immigration.

 

Donald Trump wooing former advisor Kellyanne Conway to join campaign
Ian Mohr, Page Six

Don’t call it a comeback! Sources tell us that Donald Trump has been “quietly speaking to” former senior adviser Kellyanne Conway to get her to join the team for his 2024 campaign.

 

Trump-aligned super PAC bankrolls $6 million ad campaign attacking DeSantis
Soo Rin Kim, ABC News

A super PAC supporting former President Donald Trump has already spent more than $6 million on television ads attacking Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, even before DeSantis has declared his presidential candidacy.

 

Ron DeSantis’ long-haul strategy against Trump comes into view
Henry J. Gomez and Matt Dixon, NBC News

Although he hasn’t yet announced a presidential bid, the Florida governor’s team has already had internal discussions about delegate strategy.

 

Major G.O.P. Donor’s Commitment to DeSantis Is Murkier Than Thought
Maggie Haberman and Rebecca Davis O’Brien, The New York Times

The hedge fund billionaire Kenneth Griffin, who seemed set to be a powerful financial backer of the Florida governor, is said to still be evaluating the Republican primary race.

 

Ron DeSantis praises Japan’s military build-up in visit
Reuters

The Florida governor and potential U.S. presidential candidate met Prime Minister Fumio Kishida as part of a four-country trip to burnish his foreign policy credentials.

 

Eleni Kounalakis first to launch campaign for California governor in 2026
Christopher Cadelago, Politico

The state’s lieutenant governor has assembled an A-team of political strategists and fundraisers for her run.

 
States
 

Gavin Newsom Isn’t Supposed to Be Doing This
Gabriel Debenedetti, New York

The Feinstein dilemma looms over the wannabe face of Democrats.

 

ACLU Sues To Block Missouri Rule On Transgender Health Care
Heather Hollingsworth and Summer Ballentine, The Associated Press

The Missouri ACLU on Monday sued to block new state restrictions on both adults and children seeking gender-affirming health care, which are set to kick in Thursday. 

 

Montana transgender lawmaker silenced again, backers protest
Amy Beth Hanson and Sam Metz, The Associated Press

Montana Republicans persisted in forbidding Democratic transgender lawmaker Zooey Zephyr from participating in debate for a second week and her supporters brought the House session to a halt Monday — chanting “Let her speak!” from the gallery before they were escorted out.

 

North Dakota Governor Signs Near-Total Abortion Ban
Ava Sasani, The New York Times

The governor approved the state’s prohibition on Monday, just a month after the State Supreme Court blocked an earlier ban.

 

Florida GOP is on the verge of passing a Ron DeSantis-backed immigration bill
Matt Dixon, NBC News

The sweeping legislation would give $12 million to the governor’s program flying migrants to Democratic states, among other measures.

 

Florida surgeon general altered key findings in study on Covid-19 vaccine safety
Arek Sarkissian, Politico

Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo personally altered a state-driven study about Covid-19 vaccines last year to suggest that some doses pose a significantly higher health risk for young men than had been established by the broader medical community, according to a newly obtained document.

 
Advocacy
 

Law firm head bought Gorsuch-owned property
Heidi Przybyla, Politico

For nearly two years beginning in 2015, Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch sought a buyer for a 40-acre tract of property he co-owned in rural Granby, Colorado.

 

The Heritage Foundation Heralds Its Populist Evolution
Andrew Egger et al., The Dispatch

The Heritage Foundation celebrated its 50th anniversary last week with the triumphant message that the most prominent conservative think tank in Washington is fully aligned with the Republican party’s recent embrace of nationalist populism.

 
Opinions, Editorials and Perspectives
 

The Real Reason Trump Might Win the Nomination
Jeff Greenfield, Politico

If you’re looking for reasons why Republicans continue to embrace Donald Trump as their preferred presidential candidate — he has a 58-21 percent lead over Ron DeSantis in a Reuters/Ipsos post-indictment survey — you have a rich buffet of choices in front of you.

 







Morning Consult