2024
Biden launched his 2024 re-election campaign with a video casting his campaign as one to defend Americans’ fundamental rights and to protect democracy against the threat he sees in Trump. The announcement coincided with the four-year anniversary of the launch of his 2020 campaign.
At the dawn of the effort, our latest tracking of next year’s contest shows Biden with a narrow lead over Trump and DeSantis. He is viewed as capable of leading the country, mentally fit and in good health by big majorities of Democratic voters, but those sentiments have declined since he took office — both among his base and the overall electorate.
The effort to secure his victory will be led by Julie Chavez Rodriguez, a Democratic Party activist and director of the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs. His campaign will be supported from the outside by the Democratic super PAC, Priorities USA, which launched a $75 million campaign to back him up.
Biden, who holds a comfortable lead over his two Democratic primary rivals, was endorsed early by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who was Biden’s chief rival for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination in 2020.
On the Republican side of the contest, Trump continues to rake in endorsements as well despite his ongoing legal exposure, which was highlighted on two fronts.
First, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis said she will announce between July 11 and Sept. 1 whether her office will charge Trump and his allies with crimes related to attempts to overturn Biden’s 2020 victory in Georgia, setting up another potential indictment for the GOP’s 2024 front-runner.
Second was former Vice President Mike Pence’s appearance in front of a federal grand jury investigating his efforts to overturn Biden’s 2020 victory. Pence is seen as a key witness in the criminal probe given Trump’s pressure on him to delay congressional certification of Biden’s win. Pence’s involvement came as he signaled he would make a decision about joining the contest “well before late June.”
As Pence and DeSantis continue to defer their announcements, Trump’s biggest declared rival, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, gave a speech in which she promised to address abortion “directly and openly,” but offered few specifics about her plan to reach a “national consensus” on the issue. It highlighted the GOP’s complicated ground after the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson ruling last year.
Haley and Trump were joined in the race by former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson.
Whether they will face off against Trump, directly, is yet to be seen. Trump suggested he may not participate in the Republican National Committee’s presidential primary debates as he raised concerns about potential moderators and venues.
Trump holds a wide lead over his rivals, and that’s only expanded in recent weeks. Furthermore, a majority of potential Republican primary voters say Trump has the best chance of beating Biden next year, compared with about 1 in 4 who say the same of DeSantis. (As our U.S. politics analyst Cameron Easley pointed out, college-educated primary voters are more likely than those without a degree to say that DeSantis has a better chance of beating Biden next in 2024.)
Down ballot, West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice announced his campaign for the Republican nomination for the Senate seat held by Democrat Joe Manchin. Manchin has yet to announce his 2024 plans, and in order for Justice to face him, he’ll have to defeat Rep. Alex Mooney in a Republican primary. (Politico)
Justice’s move could set up a marquee race in a solidly red state between one of America’s most popular governors and one of its least popular senators if Manchin does run, according to our latest quarterly approval ratings.
