Morning Consult Washington: Trump’s GOP Primary Lead Widens Ahead of Arraignment




 


Washington

Essential U.S. political news & intel to start your day.
April 4, 2023
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Trump’s Support Strengthens After Indictment

Former President Donald Trump is backed by 55% of potential Republican primary voters, up 3 percentage points from last Wednesday, the day before news broke that a Manhattan grand jury voted to indict him on fraud charges over his alleged role in paying hush money to adult film star Stormy Daniels. It gives him a 29-percentage-point lead over his closest polling potential rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — marking his second-best advantage since tracking began in December. Dive into the latest data from our 2024 GOP primary tracker.

 

Today’s Top News

  • Trump is set to be arrested and arraigned in a Manhattan courtroom on 34 felony counts for falsification of business records, according to a source, though he reportedly won’t be handcuffed, placed in a jail cell or compelled to pose for a mugshot. (Yahoo News) Ahead of today’s activity, Trump has hired white-collar criminal defense lawyer Todd Blanche, a former federal prosecutor who recently resigned as a partner at law firm Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft, to be his lead counsel in the case. (Politico)
  • House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is poised to meet tomorrow in California with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen. Chinese officials have warned Tsai’s U.S. visit could lead to a “serious” confrontation in the U.S.-China relationship after former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) trip to Taiwan sparked extensive Chinese military exercises around the island. (CNN)
  • Scott Parkinson, a former senior adviser to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) who works for the conservative Club for Growth, said he will run for the Republican nomination to challenge Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine next year in Virginia. (The Associated Press)
  • Democratic online fundraising platform ActBlue laid off 17% of its workforce, primarily in non-technical roles, joining a wider series of reductions across political organizations and tech companies. (Politico)
 

Chart Review



 
 

What Else You Need To Know

White House & Administration
 

Biden Downplays OPEC Cut, Says It Won’t Be as ‘Bad as You Think’
Justin Sink, Bloomberg

President Joe Biden downplayed the impact of a surprise OPEC+ announcement that it would slash oil production by more than 1 million barrels per day.

 

Biden trumpets his economic plans in Minnesota after Cummins announces $1 billion investment
Emma Kinery, CNBC

President Joe Biden touted efforts to boost U.S. manufacturing after touring a Cummins facility in Minnesota on Monday, as the company announced it will invest $1 billion in making cleaner engines.

 

Biden’s Reluctant Approach to Free Trade Draws Backlash
Ana Swanson, The New York Times

A law intended to bolster clean energy manufacturing has ignited debate over whether the U.S. should work to break down international trade barriers — or keep them intact to protect American workers.

 

U.S. discussing freeze-for-freeze approach to Iran nuclear program
Barak Ravid, Axios

The Biden administration discussed with its European and Israeli partners in recent weeks a proposal for an interim agreement with Iran that would include some sanctions relief in exchange for Tehran freezing parts of its nuclear program, according to 10 Israeli officials, Western diplomats and U.S. experts with knowledge of the proposal.

 

Biden to meet with experts on AI ‘risks and opportunities’
Zeke Miller, The Associated Press

President Joe Biden on Tuesday will meet with his council of advisers on science and technology about the “ risks and opportunities ” that rapid advancements in artificial intelligence development pose for individual users and national security.

 
Congress
 

Congressman: US support for aid to Ukraine is ‘overwhelming’
Elena Becatoros, The Associated Press

The head of the U.S. House Intelligence Committee said Monday that there is “overwhelming” support in the United States to continue supplying aid to Ukraine in its fight against Russia, despite vocal opposition from a hard-right faction of his own Republican Party.

 

Congress Seeks Details on Spying Risks From Chinese Cargo Cranes
Gordon Lubold and Aruna Viswanatha, The Wall Street Journal

Lawmakers call for hearings amid growing concerns of surveillance or sabotage at U.S. ports.

 

House GOP’s Biden investigations sputter out of the gate
Jordain Carney, Politico

Much-touted Republican oversight work is moving more slowly than the party had hoped, thanks to high expectations and divergent focuses.

 

GOP’s war on the cartels
Zachary Basu and Stef W. Kight, Axios

Leading Republicans across the ideological spectrum are rallying behind an aggressive and controversial new approach to the fentanyl crisis: Bomb the cartels, with or without the permission of the Mexican government.

 

Key Senate Dems want Supreme Court funding tied to an ethics code for justices
Tierney Sneed, CNN

Key Senate Democrats are calling for next year’s funding for the Supreme Court to be conditioned on the creation of an ethics code for the justices. Sen. Chris Van Hollen, a Maryland Democrat who leads the appropriations subcommittee charged with writing the annual funding bill for the judiciary, has expressed support for the idea, but doing so will ultimately need the backing of Republicans.

 

The Democratic Senator Who Says Liberals Have Lost Their Way on Housing
Henry Grabar, Slate

How Sen. Brian Schatz became a YIMBY—and how he thinks his party can see the light.

 

‘Fake news’ no more: Marjorie Taylor Greene’s journey to 60 Minutes
Kadia Goba, Semafor

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene “expected a hit job” when she decided to open her doors to CBS’ 60 Minutes, which gave her a star turn in their opening segment on Sunday. It’s a program known for its sometimes strained relationship with Republicans.

 

Friend who intervened to stop attack on Rand Paul staffer speaks out
Emily Davies, The Washington Post

Between church service on the National Mall and a gathering at an apartment in Northeast Washington, three friends stopped on H Street to grab an early dinner. One of them ducked into a local pie shop. Phillip Todd, a staffer for Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), and Christopher Barnard, a vice president at the American Conservation Coalition, went to Sol Mexican Grill.

 
General
 

Finland is set to join NATO, doubling US-led military alliance’s border with Russia
Tara John, CNN

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is set to welcome Finland as its 31st member on Tuesday, marking a major shift in the security landscape in northeastern Europe that adds some 1,300 kilometers (830 miles) to the alliance’s frontier with Russia.

 

Will U.S. Support for Ukraine Outlast Biden?
Robbie Gramer and Christina Lu, Foreign Policy

China hawks in Washington rattle nerves in Europe.

 

Everybody in Washington wants the Ukrainian ambassador at their party
Ben Terris, The Washington Post

Oksana Markarova is hitting the town like her country depends on it.

 

He already rocked MAGA world — twice. Now he’s Trump’s judge.
Julia Marsh, Politico

New York Justice Juan Merchan told a Trump Org. executive he got off easy in another criminal case. Will the former president be so lucky?

 

The Trump Arraignment Media Circus Is Underway
Charlotte Klein, Vanity Fair

On a brisk but sunny Monday morning, Lower Manhattan was swarmed with satellite trucks and news crews. In front of the New York State Supreme Court, two TV reporters were doing news hits, with one noting “a very tight security apparatus” and “huge media contingent” anticipating Donald Trump’s arraignment on Tuesday.

 
Campaigns
 

Wisconsin’s High-Stakes Supreme Court Race: What to Watch
Reid J. Epstein, The New York Times

The election for a swing seat on the court is likely to determine whether abortion remains illegal in Wisconsin, as well as the future of the state’s heavily gerrymandered political maps.

 

Chicago mayoral runoff could reveal direction of Democratic voters
Eric Bradner, CNN

Chicago voters will weigh in Tuesday on the direction of the Democratic Party, choosing between progressive Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson and moderate former city schools chief Paul Vallas in the mayoral runoff.

 

House Democrats targeting 33 GOP-held and open seats next year
Mary Ellen McIntire, Roll Call

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on Monday designated 33 districts as “in play” for next year’s elections.

 

Dems dump 500 pages of DeSantis opposition research
Alexi McCammond, Axios

Democrats on Monday released 500 pages of opposition research as a preemptive strike on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ 2024 presidential campaign.

 

Trump’s online war machine trains its weapons on Ron DeSantis
Jonathan Allen and Vaughn Hillyard, NBC News

There’s a difference between real influencers and “internet trolls,” said the spokesperson for the pro-DeSantis SuperPAC Never Back Down.

 

Check thief jacks Sen. Chuck Schumer’s campaign account
Dave Levinthal, Rawstory

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is the latest in a string of prominent politicians and political committees to lose campaign cash to a thief.

 
States
 

Roy McGrath killed by gunfire in confrontation with FBI in Tennessee
Tim Prudente and Justin Fenton, The Baltimore Banner

The fugitive former Maryland government official Roy McGrath died of a gunshot wound at a Tennessee hospital Monday night after a confrontation with FBI agents just west of Knoxville, according to federal authorities and the attorney for McGrath’s wife.

 

Tennessee GOP file resolutions to expel three Democrats who led gun reform chants on House floor
Melissa Brown and Vivian Jones, Nashville Tennessean

Tennessee House Republicans on Monday filed resolutions to expel three Democrats for “disorderly behavior” after the trio led protest chants for gun reform on the floor of the chamber last week in the wake of the deadly Covenant School shooting.

 

Democrats want to restore Roe. They’re divided on whether to go even further.
Alice Miranda Ollstein and Megan Messerly, Politico

Abortion is headed for the ballot in several swing states as activists clash over limits.

 

A wet winter won’t stave off the Colorado River’s water cuts
Joshua Partlow, The Washington Post

Interior officials and Senators from river states begin trip to work toward agreement on water cuts.

 

North Dakota legislature fails to override veto of transgender pronoun bill
Brooke Migdon, The Hill

North Dakota House Republicans on Monday failed to secure enough votes to override Gov. Doug Burgum’s (R) veto of legislation that would have allowed state employees and educators to misgender transgender staff and students.

 

Gov. Murphy Signs Law Decried as a ‘Frontal Assault’ on Good Government
Tracey Tully, The New York Times

The bill doubles New Jersey’s campaign contribution limits and quashes investigations by a watchdog agency.

 

DeSantis’ signature tips US into majority ‘constitutional carry’ nation with new Florida gun rights law
Emma Colton, Fox News

Florida is the 26th state with laws on the books allowing permitless carrying of firearms.

 
Advocacy
 

Disney Chief Bob Iger calls Gov. DeSantis’ actions ‘anti-business and anti-Florida’
Meg James, Los Angeles Times

Walt Disney Co. Chief Executive Bob Iger on Monday shot back at Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis amid an escalating tussle over the company’s political positions and its ability to self-govern its expansive resorts in the Sunshine State.

 

How Georgia’s Top GOP Leaders Have Blocked Title Lending Reform
Margaret Coker and Mollie Simon, The Current and ProPublica

TMX Finance and Select Management Resources, the owners of two major title lending brands, have been cozying up to Georgia lawmakers in a position to bottleneck industry reform.

 
Opinions, Editorials and Perspectives
 

Indictment will not only affect Trump in 2024 election
Nathan L. Gonzales, Roll Call

Even if legal problems don’t hinder former President Donald Trump’s political comeback attempt, they could hurt other Republican candidates on the ballot in 2024.

 

The Trump Indictment Reveals More About Our Politics Than It Does About the Ex-President
Julia Azari, Politico

Is the effort to hold Trump accountable showing the limits of our “politics of revelation”?

 







Morning Consult