Xi-Putin meeting: Chinese President Xi Jinping will arrive in Moscow on Monday for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin as Beijing makes a push for greater influence in world affairs. Mediation between Russia and Ukraine appears to be an attractive niche for Beijing to fill, and one that could provide a little leverage over Ukraine’s Western allies, perhaps taking a leaf from Turkey’s book. So far, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy seems open to hearing Xi out, with both leaders reportedly planning to speak following Xi’s Moscow visit, but it’s hard to imagine we stand at the precipice of any great breakthrough.
What we are watching: How much support can Xi offer Putin without discrediting himself in front of Zelenskyy?
The symbolism of Xi’s choice of Russia for the first foreign visit of his unprecedented third term in office is quite clear, but Putin might be hoping for a little more than optics. If reports of massive casualties and shortages of ammunition among Russian units at the front are to be believed, Xi may be under pressure to begin arming Moscow lest his only major ally risk collapse. Washington has issued severe warnings against such a move and discussed sanctioning China with European allies if Beijing crosses that red line.
Despite those tensions, the White House did respond positively to plans for talks between Xi and Zelenskyy. National security adviser Jake Sullivan expressed hope that hearing Ukraine’s side could further dissuade China from arming Russia, but there’s no clear deliverable at hand. That said, the interaction will set the tone for further Chinese attempts to mediate. If Xi announces support for Russia but turns up with little more than platitudes for Zelenskyy, Kyiv can see which way the wind is blowing and may not be receptive to future entreaties from Beijing. Xi’s no neophyte, and we’ll be watching how he plays it.
TikTok on the auction block? The White House asked ByteDance Ltd., owners of the popular social video app TikTok, to either sell the app or face a possible ban within the U.S. commercial market. American government officials are already banned from using the app on their work equipment, a measure the U.K. and New Zealand governments also recently took, but banning the app entirely would have serious business and diplomatic implications.
(I feel compelled to clear up some misinformation here: You will have heard from some sources that TikTok is banned in China; this is not true. It is available and extremely popular under the app’s original brand, Douyin, though the content served is censored and stricter rules exist for children.)
To be clear, TikTok’s surveillance risks are real, and keeping the app off the phones of government officials is good policy. For that matter, if you are a business executive, a journalist or handle any sensitive data, you’d do better to keep it off your devices as well. The Department of Justice is investigating ByteDance for monitoring the location of journalists using the app as part of an internal company project. It’s fair to argue that collecting information about teenagers doing little dances is pretty innocuous, but the company’s data practices warrant caution from anyone with sensitive responsibilities.
TikTok’s Singaporean CEO, Shou Zi Chew, says the Chinese government likely won’t allow the company to sell its algorithm in the first place, and that selling the app to U.S. holders wouldn’t ease surveillance risks. And there are possible political implications, as Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo pointed out when she said banning the app is likely to alienate key voters under 35 years old. (To her point, Morning Consult survey data from 2020 found Gen Z adults and millennials oppose a TikTok ban by more than 20-percentage-point margins.) We’ll keep an eye out for how this impasse is resolved and whom voters blame for the ban if it should come to pass.
The South Korea-Japan thaw: South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol’s visit to Japan last week achieved more than many expected going into the summit, an indication of how seriously both Seoul and Tokyo view cooperation to their own security. Both sides agreed to drop a yearslong trade dispute and resume alternating leader visits to develop tight working relationships and rapport. Yoon also seemed to get along well with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, overcoming a palpable chill in earlier interactions, as they shared a meal of omurice, a traditional comfort dish in both countries. (Order it next time you are at an Izakaya or Korean BBQ spot and thank me later.)
What we are watching: Can each leader overcome significant pressure at home against the thaw?
It’s hard to overstate how visceral the resentment many Koreans feel toward Japan for its colonial occupation still is. It’s equally true that many Japanese do not care to be reminded of the atrocities the authoritarian government inflicted during their imperial rise in the early 20th century after proving their commitment to democracy, pacifism and the international order after World War II. A decade ago, I asked a senior diplomat at the U.S. embassy in Seoul why the U.S. didn’t do more to foster historical reconciliation between two indispensable allies. He simply laughed at the question: The pain and shame are too raw.
But now fear seems to be tipping the emotional balance. Just look at a map; Japan and Korea are extremely isolated from other friendly countries. Taiwan is over 1,000 miles away, compared with 2,000 for the Philippines, 4,000 for Australia, and 6,000 for the United States and Canada. In any confrontation with China, Seoul’s and Tokyo’s ability to support one another will play a determinative role as to whether they can hold out until help arrives. And don’t forget about North Korea, which continues its bellicose missile launches even as it faces a food crisis — itself a geopolitically dangerous prospect.
Yoon returned to Korea, however, to scathing criticism from the opposition party, which historically attacks the conservatives for their perceived dovishness toward Japan. Both Kishida and Yoon are very unpopular according to Morning Consult’s Global Leader Approval Ratings, but the situation seems too dire to try to goose their numbers with a little rally-around-the-flag nationalism. Nonetheless, we’re watching for signs that either leader is getting cold feet, and will be updating you around the time of Yoon’s state visit to Washington in April.
