Morning Consult Washington Presented by the Alzheimer’s Association: What’s Ahead & Week in Review




 


Washington

Essential U.S. political news & intel to start your day.
March 26, 2023
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Good Sunday morning from Washington, and happy “Succession” day to those who celebrate the premier of the final season of the hit HBO show. Let’s start out with a question from the latest MCIQ quiz: “Fill in the blank: 1 in __ American women believe the country is headed in the right direction.” Take our quiz to find out

 

What’s Ahead

Biden road show: President Joe Biden is poised to kick off a three-week road show touting his economic agenda with a Tuesday visit to a chipmaker in North Carolina. 

 

What we’re watching: Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and other administration officials are planning to visit 20 states over the next few weeks following a Monday Cabinet meeting, with the goal of promoting the Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS and Science Act and the bipartisan infrastructure law. The push to promote those big policy achievements come as Biden readies his likely re-election campaign in the face of flat job approval rating figures. 

 

AUMF repeal: The Senate is set to meet tomorrow at 3 p.m., when lawmakers will resume consideration of legislation to repeal the 1991 and 2002 authorizations for use of military force in Iraq. 

 

What we’re watching: House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said he thinks there’s a strong chance the repeals could pass the House but they’ll have to go through committee first. A number of Republicans who have been cold to AUMF repeals, such as House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), have dropped their opposition to this effort

 

McConnell absence: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) remains out of commission in the chamber as he recovers from a concussion and a minor rib fracture.

 

Why it’s worth watching: A number of Republicans believe his absence could be a problem for the party if it continues, with Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) raising concerns about upcoming resolutions aimed at overturning Biden administration regulations that only require majority support. For his part, McConnell has been phoning his Republican colleagues expressing his eagerness to return but providing no timeline.  

 

Another immigration delay: Do not mark your calendars for the House Judiciary Committee’s consideration of immigration and border security bills, according to Punchbowl News, which reported that GOP leaders have urged committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) to wait until the House returns in mid-April. 

 

Why it’s worth watching: Republicans have struggled to find unity on the issue where they have maintained enormous political advantage over Biden and the Democrats. However, their hesitance has done little to alter American trust in them to handle it: According to our latest survey, 45% trust Republicans in Congress to handle immigration, compared with 38% who trust Democrats — similar to both parties’ standing at the beginning of the Congress.

 

Bank regs: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested to Congress that policymakers should update regulation and oversight rules to prevent bank runs following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. 

 

What we’re watching: Setting aside the divided Congress, Senate Democrats are not speaking with a unanimous voice on the issue, complicating Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s (D-N.Y.) response to the banking crisis. Some of this is due to 2024 politics, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) pushing to unwind bank deregulation legislation that was supported by Democratic Sens. Jon Tester of Montana and Joe Manchin of West Virginia, both of whom face tough re-election campaigns next year. For now, the Biden administration said it is prepared to backstop other banks as officials are looking at ways to expand Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. coverage.

 

Back to the drawing board:  Biden will need to pick another nominee to lead the Federal Aviation Administration after Phil Washington, CEO of the Denver International Airport, withdrew from consideration after it became apparent he lacked the votes to advance from the Senate Commerce Committee.

 

Hearings to watch: On Monday, the House Rules Committee will mark up H.R.1, the GOP’s flagship energy bill. 

 

On Tuesday, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Attorney General Merrick Garland will testify before Senate committees on their agencies’ budget requests, while Interior Secretary Deb Haaland and Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra will face House appropriators. Becerra will also appear before the House Ways and Means Committee. Meanwhile, the House Energy and Commerce Committee is set to review the East Palestine, Ohio disaster, a House Homeland Security subcommittee is scheduled to examine migration at the U.S.-Canada border and a House Oversight subcommittee will look into last year’s baby formula shortage.

 

On Wednesday, Garland is set to appear before House appropriators, while Haaland, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas will appear before Senate Appropriations subcommittees. Austin will testify before the House Armed Services Committee, and the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee will hear from the CEO of Starbucks

 

On Thursday, Vilsack will appear before a House Appropriations subcommittee. 

 

Week in Review

Trump troubles ‘24

Former President Donald Trump ended his week as a free man. 

 

The Manhattan grand jury investigating charges related to his alleged hush-money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels has yet to bring charges against Trump. Friday’s silence by the grand jury ended days of speculation, fueled by Trump, that the front-runner for the GOP’s 2024 presidential nomination was facing imminent charges, though the jurors could meet again as soon as tomorrow.

 

Jurors heard last week from Robert Costello, who advised Trump’s ex-lawyer Michael Cohen, at the request of Trump’s legal team — suggesting he might have worked to muddy Cohen’s account of the payments to Daniels. In the coming days, jurors could hear from another witness, or prosecutors could present potential charges. 

 

Trump has now twice alluded to mass demonstrations, urging his supporters last weekend to “protest” and “take our nation back.” In a late night post on his social media platform Friday, Trump warned of “potential death & destruction” should he be indicted.

 

Trump and his defenders have sought to turn the tables on Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg. House Republicans have demanded information from the local prosecutor in a request Bragg’s office slammed, saying the lawmakers lack a “legitimate basis for congressional inquiry” and suggesting New York courts are a better venue for challenging him. 

 

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Trump’s closest-polling potential rival for the Republican nomination, joined other Republicans in criticizing Bragg as a “Soros-funded prosecutor.” But DeSantis also took a not-so-subtle shot at Trump, saying, “I don’t know what goes into paying hush money to a porn star to secure silence over some type of alleged affair.” 

 

DeSantis later raised questions about Trump’s character in an interview with Piers Morgan, saying the conduct underlying his New York troubles is “just outside my wheelhouse” as he panned Trump’s nickname for him. The remarks by DeSantis prompted Trump spokesperson Jason Miller to slam the governor as “an establishment Never Trumper who despises the MAGA base.”

 

With DeSantis expected to launch a presidential bid in the coming months, Republican strategist Jeff Roe — a top adviser to Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) who led Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-Texas) 2016 presidential campaign — has joined the super PAC supporting it. Roe adds presidential campaign experience for DeSantis’ outside spending vehicle and raises doubts that Youngkin will seek the White House.

 

Amid all of this, the latest update to our 2024 GOP primary tracker showed Trump leading DeSantis by 28 percentage points — one of his largest polling leads to date, giving him far more support than his declared challengers. More challengers are expected to enter the mix, with Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) looking to launch a bid soon, as evidenced by planned trips to early nominating states early next month

 

On top of the New York matter, Justice Department special counsel Jack Smith’s investigation is heating up in Washington. His prosecutors presented evidence showing Trump deliberately misled his attorneys about his retention of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago resort, according to reported comments by a federal judge, forcing Trump attorney Evan Corcoran to comply with a subpoena.

 

And in Georgia, Trump’s lawyers are working to quash a final grand jury report into his efforts to overturn that state’s presidential election result — yet another part of Trump’s legal jeopardy on multiple fronts.

 

Capitol Hill bits

  • TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew’s testimony to the House Energy and Commerce Committee did nothing to appease lawmakers’ bipartisan concerns about his companies ties to China, data privacy and dangers to children as Washington considers banning the social video app used by 150 million Americans. He was undercut after China’s Commerce Ministry preempted his testimony by saying it would oppose the Biden administration’s proposal to decouple TikTok from its Chinese-based parent, ByteDance Ltd.
  • A group of House Republicans are urging House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) to include demands for energy permitting reform in his opening offer to Democrats for raising the debt limit. Meanwhile, a number of Senate Republicans are worried that there is no back up plan if Biden and McCarthy cannot reach an agreement soon.
  • Lawmakers failed to override Biden’s first veto, which blocked the repeal of a Labor Department rule that authorizes retirement plan managers to incorporate environmental and social factors into investment decisions.
  • Republican-pushed legislation to block the District of Columbia’s criminal reform revisions was signed into law by Biden in an effort to refute claims that he and other Democrats are weak on crime.
Stat of the Week
 

37%

 

That’s the share of potential Republican primary voters who say supporting Ukraine’s defense against Russia through military aid and funding is a vital U.S. interest, compared with 46% who disagree. Read more from Matt Kendrick here: DeSantis’ Position on Ukraine Divides the GOP Base and Has Few Backers Among the Broader Electorate.

 
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