Morning Consult Washington: What’s Ahead & Week in Review




 


Washington

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April 2, 2023
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Good Sunday morning from Washington, where the House and Senate will not be in session this week and all eyes will instead be on former President Donald Trump. Before we get to that, let’s start out with a question from the latest MCIQ quiz: “What share of voters said the U.S. immigration system has gotten worse under the Biden administration?” Take our quiz to find out

 

What’s Ahead

Trump arraignment: Trump is poised to be arraigned Tuesday on charges related to an alleged hush-money scheme with adult film star Stormy Daniels. 

 

What we’re watching: Little is yet known about the exact charges Trump will face (more below), but that’s largely beside the point when it comes to the public arena, where the former president has already cast aspersions on the probe as “political persecution” and alluded to potential violence. For his part, Trump could be detained for hours in Manhattan on Tuesday as the court fingerprints, photographs and goes through other procedures with him as they would any other criminal defendant. 

 

Biden split screen: Biden is expected to visit a Minnesota clean energy tech company this week as part of his administration’s 20-state tour to highlight his economic agenda before embarking on a visit to Ireland next week to mark the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday peace accord. 

 

What we’re watching: Biden isn’t talking about Trump’s indictment, and the domestic travel will allow him to draw a contrast with the chaos of his predecessor’s legal predicament as he approaches an expected re-election campaign. The pending foreign visit puts Biden on the world stage to highlight his Irish roots, though some diplomats have expressed unease that the trip is snubbing King Charles III.  

 

Elections: Tuesday is a key Election Day for off-year races, with mayoral contests in Chicago, Denver and Kansas City and a high-stakes contest for control of the Wisconsin Supreme Court. 

 

Why it’s worth watching: The Chicago mayoral contest marks another progressive vs. establishment skirmish in the Democratic Party, with Brandon Johnson campaigning with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Paul Vallas touting endorsements from the likes of Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin of Illinois. The Wisconsin contest, on the other hand, carries enormous weight for issues such as abortion rights, congressional redistricting and perhaps even the 2024 presidential election’s results in the state.

 

W.Va. intrigue: West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) is set to make a campaign announcement Tuesday.

 

What we’re watching: It isn’t yet clear what he is running for, with the contest for the Governor’s Mansion open and a very vulnerable Democratic senator in Joe Manchin poised to be on the ballot next fall. If Morrisey were to go the Senate route, that could create some awkwardness given Republican Gov. Jim Justice’s own expressed interest in the role. 

 

Week in Review

Trump indicted

Trump again made history, becoming the first current or former president to face criminal charges after a Manhattan grand jury voted to indict him, reportedly on more than 30 counts related to business fraud.

 

Even as the indictment was under seal, a number of prominent Republicans rushed to Trump’s defense following his own statement that Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s move “is Political Persecution and Election Interference at the highest level in history,” echoing comments made ahead of his indictment during a rare interview on Fox News where he said Bragg’s probe was “a new way of cheating in elections.”

 

One of Trump’s expected rivals, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, said the indictment amounts to a “weaponization of the legal system” and said he would not play a role in Trump’s extradition, while former Vice President Mike Pence called it an “outrage” as he mulls his own 2024 bid. 

 

Among the voting public, the indictment is popular with the wider electorate, but there’s broad support for his attacks on the probe among the GOP’s prospective 2024 primary voters, according to our survey conducted on Friday. 

The Republican electorate’s initial response lines up with  sentiment tracked earlier last month as Trump fueled speculation about his indictment, which showed him maintaining his big lead in the primary and polling close to Biden in a hypothetical general-election matchup.   

 

On top of the proceedings in New York, a federal judge in Washington is said to have ordered former Vice President Mike Pence to comply with a subpoena from special counsel Jack Smith’s grand jury investigating Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election results.

 

Pence, who’s been highly critical of Trump’s behavior surrounding Jan. 6, responded to the news by saying, “I have nothing to hide.”

 

What you might have missed on Capitol Hill

The mass shooting at a private school in Nashville was met by a familiar refrain from GOP lawmakers, who poured cold water on calls to strengthen the nation’s gun laws. “We’re not going to fix it,” Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) said flatly, arguing that Congress doesn’t have a role in addressing incidents of mass gun violence. 

 

Other Republicans were less explicit that nothing is going to happen, but panned efforts to restrict firearms. 

 

On one thing Congress has to tackle this year, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said House Republicans are “very close” to coalescing around a bill to raise the debt limit if Biden won’t agree to negotiations. It marked the first time McCarthy suggested his caucus could act without the president’s input. 

 

It came after a top lieutenant of his — House Financial Services Chairman Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) — raised alarm bells by saying “I don’t even see a path” to a bipartisan agreement. 

 

McCarthy — who had reportedly had no contact with the White House on the issue since Feb. 1 —  penned a letter to Biden earlier in the week about the debt limit outlining the contours of potential negotiations. Among them: House Republicans are floating legislation to speed up energy permitting in exchange for raising the borrowing cap sometime this summer, which provides a potential pathway forward.

 

Meanwhile, four Democrats backed a nearly unanimous Republican conference in passing the GOP’s priority energy, permitting and infrastructure legislation — a symbolic measure that will not pass the Senate but will give Republicans a chance to cast themselves as pro-American energy on the 2024 campaign trail. 

 

Across the building, the Senate voted 66-30 to repeal the 1991 and 2002 authorizations for the use of military force in Iraq, sending the bill to the House, where McCarthy thinks a similar measure can pass. The chamber also voted 53-43 to send Biden a resolution to overturn the EPA’s waters of the United States rule, which he has threatened to veto, and voted 68-23 to end the COVID-19 pandemic ​national emergency ahead of the Biden administration’s own expected action in May. 

 

Biden is expected to sign the COVID-19 measure, which passed the House 229-197 in February, even as the White House continues to say he is opposed to it. That approach, reminiscent of how the White House handled the GOP-led efforts to overturn the District of Columbia’s criminal code revisions, has irked some House Democrats, who reportedly feel blindsided.

Stat of the Week
 

10%

 

That’s the share of voters in the most competitive congressional districts who rank issues such as abortion as their top voting concern, down from 15% in November. Read more from me here: The Salience of Abortion Rights, Which Helped Democrats Mightily in 2022, Has Started to Fade.

 
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