Morning Consult Washington: What’s Ahead & Week in Review

Washington

Essential U.S. political news & intel to start your day.

April 16, 2023

By Eli Yokley

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Good Sunday morning from Washington. Let’s dive right in as this town prepares to welcome Congress and President Joe Biden back this week.

What’s Ahead

Debt-limit talks: House Republican leaders have begun putting together a legislative package that would lift the federal debt limit until May 2024, and they intend to share it with rank-and-file lawmakers this week. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is set to give a speech on the debt limit this week at the New York Stock Exchange.

What we’re watching: As part of the talks, House Republicans are said to be coalescing around a plan that would propose recapturing unspent COVID-19 relief funds, ending Biden’s student loan cancellation program, rescinding Democrats’ climate spending and capping Affordable Care Act subsidies. Republican Study Committee Chairman Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) penned a letter to his 176-member group calling for a vote on debt-limit legislation this month.

Labor nominee in trouble: The Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee is set to hold a hearing Thursday to consider Biden’s nomination of Julie Su to serve as labor secretary.

What we’re watching: Su’s nomination is facing some trouble, driven in part by reservations from Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). Failure to confirm her would mark Biden’s third nomination defeat so far this year.

McConnell return: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said he will return to the chamber for its session this week after being hospitalized for a concussion in March.

What we’re watching: Meanwhile, Republican senators are said to be pushing for some sort of deal with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) that would allow him to temporarily replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) on the Senate Judiciary Committee while she’s on medical leave.

Clarence Thomas pressure: The Senate Judiciary Committee intends to hold a hearing “in the coming days” on the Supreme Court’s ethical standards, following a ProPublica report that Justice Clarence Thomas accepted and failed to disclose gifts from prominent Republican donor Harlan Crow.

What we’re watching: The hearing, which has yet to be scheduled, comes amid calls from Senate Democrats for Chief Justice John Roberts to launch his own probe into the matter, and urging by Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) for the court to impose an “enforceable code of conduct.”

House Judiciary takes on NYC crime: The House Judiciary Committee is set to hold a hearing tomorrow morning in New York City entitled “Victims of Violent Crime in Manhattan.”

Why it’s worth watching: The hearing is part of a Republican effort to turn the tables on Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg as he pursues his criminal fraud case against former President Donald Trump.

Other hearings to keep your eyes on: The House Rules Committee will meet tomorrow afternoon to discuss the “Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act” and a resolution disapproving of the District of Columbia Council’s Comprehensive Policing and Justice Reform Amendment Act of 2022 ahead of votes this week.

A House Appropriations subcommittee is scheduled to hear about immigration from the acting director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (Tuesday) and the acting commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection (Wednesday), while the House Homeland Security Committee is due to hear from the Homeland Security secretary on Wednesday. House appropriators are also set to hear from the secretaries of Education (Tuesday), Housing and Urban Development (Tuesday), Commerce (Tuesday) and Transportation (Thursday).

The Homeland Security secretary will also appear before the Senate Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs Committee (Tuesday), and Senate appropriators are due to hear from the Food and Drug Administration commissioner (Wednesday) and the HUD secretary (Thursday).

DeSantis to D.C.: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is scheduled to visit Washington, D.C., on Tuesday for meetings with Republican members of Congress and a “meet and greet policy discussion” with conservative leaders. The list of hosts for the event includes Republican Reps. Chip Roy of Texas and Thomas Massie of Kentucky, who have both endorsed DeSantis, as well as Republican Sen. Mike Lee of Utah, who’s yet to weigh in on the contest.

What we’re watching: DeSantis’ planned trip comes as he works to stave off defections to Trump from his state’s congressional delegation as he mulls a presidential bid. His team is said to have recently reached out to six Florida congressional Republicans in recent weeks to urge them not to back the former president’s bid.

Week in Review

The Trump show and 2024

With Biden in Ireland and Congress out of session, much of Washington’s attention was focused again this week on Trump as the Republican Party’s 2024 presidential front-runner continues to endure enormous legal scrutiny.

In response to his New York case, Trump filed a lawsuit accusing his former fixer Michael Cohen of revealing his confidences and “spreading falsehoods.” He directly referenced Cohen’s role in Bragg’s grand jury investigation, a move that suggests Trump may be seeking to silence him.

Bragg, whose office was the subject of another threatening letter containing nonhazardous white power, fired back at House Republicans. He filed a lawsuit against House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), accusing him of leading a “transparent campaign to intimidate and attack” his office’s criminal case and seeking to block a subpoena for testimony from Mark Pomerantz, a former senior prosecutor in his office.

But Trump’s bigger problems may be emanating from Washington.

Special counsel Jack Smith’s investigation into Trump’s involvement in the Jan. 6 Capitol attack is said to be probing the former president and his advisers’ fundraising actions after the 2020 election to determine if they scammed donors with false claims in order to raise money.

Trump is continuing to fight Smith’s grand jury from obtaining testimony from former Vice President Mike Pence, even as his former directors of national intelligence, John Ratcliffe and Richard Grenell, made appearances in separate probes.

Speaking of the other probe, Smith’s investigators are reportedly also asking witnesses about Trump’s handling of classified materials as they pursue an inquiry into his handling of documents at Mar-a-Lago and whether he obstructed justice. On Capitol Hill, some lawmakers have gained access to the documents recovered at Trump’s home — as well as the residences of Biden and Pence — though more details about their contents haven’t yet emerged.

Taken together, this sounds bad for Trump. But it’s not hurting him with the GOP electorate. In fact, our latest surveys showed Trump with a 33-percentage-point lead over DeSantis — his largest advantage yet.

The Florida governor has been working to bolster his conservative credentials. Last week, he signed legislation that would ban most abortions in his state after six weeks. It could help him with the anti-abortion part of the GOP electorate, but it poses a risk in a general election campaign should he secure his party’s nod — especially if the issue is elevated as courts take aim at abortion methods, such as access to the widely used abortion pill mifepristone.

Aside from DeSantis, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott has launched an exploratory committee to run for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination, allowing the GOP’s most prominent Black leader — who has 1% support in our surveys — to raise money directly for a likely presidential bid.

His almost-entrance into the contest came as the Republican Party picked Fox News to host its first primary debate in Milwaukee in August. As loyal readers of this newsletter may recall, Republican voters make up half of frequent Fox News viewers.

On the other side of the aisle, Biden maintains a formidable 60-percentage-point lead among the potential Democratic primary electorate following the entrance of anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. into the contest. Biden said in an interview that he is “planning on running” for re-election, but is not “prepared to announce it yet.”

The Democratic National Committee announced it will host its 2024 national convention in Chicago.

Campaign bits

Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) said she will seek re-election next year, joining Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) as the latest incumbent in a battleground to declare a candidacy in the face of a tough map for the Democratic Party in 2024.
Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who’s grown a following with frequent Fox News appearances, became the first high-profile Republican to file paperwork to seek the Republican nomination for the Senate seat held by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.).
In Ohio, businessman Bernie Moreno has filed papers as he considers a bid for the GOP’s nod to take on Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in a primary race that already features state Sen. Matt Dolan.
Utah House Speaker Brad Wilson (R) formed an exploratory committee to consider a run for the seat currently held by Republican Sen. Mitt Romney, who’s yet to say whether he’s seeking re-election.

Stat of the Week

70%

That is Biden’s support among potential Democratic primary voters when matched up against self-help author Marianne Williamson and Kennedy following the latter’s entrance into the party’s nominating contest. Read more from me here: Biden Leads RFK Jr. by 60 Points Among Democratic Primary Voters.