Morning Consult Washington: What’s Ahead & Week in Review




 


Washington

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May 7, 2023
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Good Sunday morning from Washington, and happy Derby weekend to those who celebrate. 

 

What’s Ahead

Debt-limit talks: House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and other congressional leaders are set to meet Tuesday with President Joe Biden for talks about raising the debt ceiling amid renewed urgency following Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s statement that the country could default on its debt by June 1.

 

What we’re watching: At the White House, Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda Young suggested that the administration is open to a short-term fix to the debt ceiling, even as officials are keeping options on the table to reach a larger compromise with House Republicans. On Capitol Hill, House Democrats began taking steps to force a vote on their legislation to raise the debt limit via a discharge petition, which would bypass GOP leadership if they can garner enough Republican support.

 

Title 42 expiration and immigration: The Biden administration is bracing for an influx of migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border following the May 11 expiration of a coronavirus-related Title 42 public health order, prompting new actions from them as well as a timely legislative push on Capitol Hill regarding the president’s — and the Democratic Party’s — worst-polling issue set.

 

What we’re watching: First, the Biden administration is sending 1,500 active duty U.S. troops to the U.S.-Mexico border to offer administrative support. The administration also reached an agreement to have Mexico continue accepting migrants from Venezuela, Haiti, Cuba and Nicaragua who are turned away by American authorities, as well as up to 100,000 individuals from Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador who may be eligible to enter the United States. In Congress, House Republicans are expected to bring up their sweeping border and immigration legislation this week as a bipartisan Senate coalition is working on legislation to give the Biden administration temporary authority to continue migrant expulsions similar to what is allowed under the Title 42 public health order. 

 

DeSantis exploratory in the works: NBC News reported late last month that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis could launch an exploratory committee for the Republican presidential nomination as soon as May 11 following the conclusion of the state legislative session two days ago.

 

Why it’s worth watching: The move sets him on a pathway toward entering the contest this summer, and comes as his support nationwide has deteriorated. Per our 2024 primary tracker, he has some work to do: Former President Donald Trump leads him by 34 points — nearly double his advantage since late February, when DeSantis’ support started to deteriorate around what was described as a “soft” launch of his campaign.

 

Trump’s return to CNN: Trump is poised to sit for a New Hampshire town-hall meeting hosted by CNN’s Kaitlan Collins on Wednesday, marking his first appearance on the network since his 2016 campaign and his first appearance on a non-conservative outlet since since he walked out of an interview with CBS’ Lesley Stahl in October 2020. (Separately, you should know Trump is planning a rally in Iowa on Saturday.) 

 

Why it’s worth watching: In March, I wrote a big piece about the voters Republicans miss by sticking to Fox News. Roughly a quarter of CNN’s audience identifies as a political independent, and a third say they are moderate. So, Trump’s decision to appear on the network could be seen as an effort to reach a broader swath of the electorate.

 

Administration moves: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rochelle Walensky is poised to leave the administration at the end of June, and Biden has named Neera Tanden as the head of his domestic policy council when Susan Rice leaves the role later this month.

 

Why it’s worth watching: Walensky’s exit comes after the end of the COVID-19 public health emergency on May 11, and Tanden’s promotion elevates a prominent Democratic operative to a key role as Biden faces re-election. 

 

Feinstein’s potential return: All eyes in the Senate are on California Democrat Dianne Feinstein, who is “hopeful” to return to Washington this week, per notes seen in the hands of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), after being absent from the chamber since an early March shingles hospitalization.

 

What we’re watching: The 89-year-old, who plans to retire at end of her term in 2024, has faced a slew of intra-party resignation calls as her absence has imperiled action in the Senate Judiciary Committee. Ahead of her potential return, she claimed that there’s been “no slowdown” in the panel’s work but also blamed Republicans for blocking some judicial nominations. 

 

Week in Review

2024

Legal scrutiny of Trump, himself, and a Biden (not the big one), escalated this week. 

 

Let’s start with the Biden. 

 

Federal prosecutors are said to be nearing a decision about whether to charge the president’s son Hunter Biden with tax- and gun-related violations, as evidenced by meetings held by his lawyers at the Justice Department late last month. That prosecutorial scrutiny comes on top of efforts on Capitol Hill, where House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) is increasing his investigative scrutiny of the president with a document demand related to his time as vice president that the White House said is laced with “innuendo and insinuation.” 

 

When it comes to the former president, special counsel Jack Smith’s investigators are said to have a confidential Mar-a-Lago insider witness cooperating with their probe of Trump’s handling of classified documents he took to his Florida home. It marks an intensification of investigators’ efforts to determine whether Trump sought to hide the materials in response to a federal subpoena, and came as the special counsel has taken special interest in the handling of Mar-a-Lago surveillance footage as part of the investigation into possible mishandling of classified records and obstruction of justice. 

 

Smith is also said to have sat in on an interview last week with former Vice President Mike Pence, who cooperated with the Justice Department’s probe into Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election results. 

 

So, lots of investigations. Will they matter? Time will tell, but initial scrutiny of Hunter Biden has done nothing to change Americans’ perceptions of his father, and Trump’s New York indictment preceded his best numbers in the GOP primary. 

 

One thing that will most likely not be a factor in the 2024 GOP primary: Glenn Youngkin. The Virginia governor said he will not launch a presidential campaign “this year,” likely ending speculation about a Republican bid even though his office attempted to walk back the comment. There is little interest in his potential candidacy among the party’s prospective electorate, which has given him around 1% support or less support since tracking began in December. 

 

On the other hand, Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) teased a “major announcement” in North Charleston on May 22 amid talk that he will launch a bid for the nod following his launch of an exploratory committee late last month. He reportedly plans to name longtime aide Jennifer DeCasper to lead the effort. (Scott has 2% support.)

 

Amid all of this, Trump is reportedly expected to skip at least one of the Republican Party’s first two presidential primary debates over concern of elevating his lower-polling rivals. Separately, the Republican National Committee is seeking to bypass the Commission on Presidential Debates for the general election debates — going as far as privately reaching out to Democratic officials about finding another party to host them.

 

Down ballot, Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) said he will not run for re-election, setting up a highly competitive Democratic primary for a rare open Senate seat in the blue state. Montgomery County Councilmember Will Jawando was first out of the gate to declare his candidacy for the party’s nomination, followed by Rep. David Trone. Democratic Rep. Jamie Raskin, who just entered remission following treatment for lymphoma, said he will decide on his own bid this month

 

Finally, down in Texas, Rep. Colin Allred announced a bid against Sen. Ted Cruz — a relatively unpopular incumbent who’s nevertheless seeking re-election in a red state.

 

ICYMI 

  • In a 56-41 vote backed by nine Democrats, the Senate sent Biden legislation that would restore tariffs on solar panels made with Chinese parts. It marks another win for Republicans pushing back on Biden initiatives, though they are likely short of the votes to override the president’s veto.
  • Billionaire Republican donor Harlan Crow is said to have paid for private school for a relative of Clarence Thomas that the Supreme Court justice said he was raising “as a son,” further underlining Thomas’ unusual financial relationship with the real estate magnate that has drawn congressional scrutiny of the court’s ethics protocols.
  • McCarthy emphasized his support for U.S. assistance to Ukraine and urged Russia to end its invasion in response to a question from a Russian reporter in Israel, distancing himself from some in the Republican Party who have opposed American spending there.
  • Biden is poised to nominate the chief of staff of the Air Force, Gen. Charles “CQ” Brown Jr., to serve as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. If confirmed by the Senate, Brown would replace Gen. Mark A. Milley.
Stat of the Week
 

65%


That’s the share of Tucker Carlson fans who said they would be interested in watching a show on Fox News hosted by someone who is not Carlson but shares his opinions. Read more here from Saleah Blancaflor:
Tucker Carlson Fans Are More Wealthy and Conservative Than Fox News Fans.

 
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