Updated: April 20, 2023 | By Jason I. McMann, PhD
Morning Consult’s U.S. Foreign Policy Tracker follows Americans’ views of U.S. foreign policy, including which issues they find most important, whether public opinion skews toward isolationism or engagement, and whether voters favor multilateral solutions to global economic and military challenges or prefer to go it alone. The tracker pairs Morning Consult’s crosscutting U.S. Foreign Policy Sentiment Indexes — which measure voters’ attitudes toward isolationism and multilateralism — with topical data on Democrats’ and Republicans’ evolving views on U.S.-China and U.S.-E.U. relations, foreign trade and investment, and more to provide holistic, high-frequency insights into Americans’ foreign policy preferences. The tracker updates quarterly. A methodological companion memo can be found here.
Read What Democrats and Republicans Expect from U.S. Foreign Policy for our forecast of where things are headed under a divided Congress, and sign up for Morning Consult Global, our daily geopolitical email briefing.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Republican voters’ concerns about China have reached new heights. The share who rank U.S.-China relations among America’s top five most pressing foreign policy priorities has risen 5 points since January (from 31% to 36%), marking a tracking high. Half of Republicans now think it is “very important” for the United States to address the issue, up from a tracking low of 39% last year.
Democratic voters’ support for global engagement continues to rise. Though a larger share still prefer isolationism, nearly a quarter of Democrats now express support for greater overseas engagement, marking a tracking high. The share is up 4 percentage points since the beginning of Q1 2023, and up 7 points from a Q3 2022 tracking low.
Shifting views on global military conflicts are to thank. The share of Democrats who support greater U.S. involvement in military conflicts overseas has risen by 10 percentage points since early Q1 2023 to a tracking high of 30%, and is up 15 points since last September. In a striking split, roughly equal shares of Democratic voters would prefer that the U.S. government increase and decrease its involvement in such conflicts (30% each), compared with 27% who support the status quo. The share of Democrats who support greater overseas troop deployments is also up 8 percentage points relative to early Q1.
Democrats’ enthusiasm for engagement does not extend to cross-border trade and capital flows. As of April, the shares of Democratic voters who support greater tariffs on foreign-made goods (41%) and barriers on inward foreign investment (37%) match earlier tracking highs, bringing Democrats’ views closer to those of GOP voters.
TOP ISSUES
Shares of registered voters citing each of the following as among the top five most important foreign policy issues facing the United States:
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ISOLATIONISM VS. ENGAGEMENT
Indexes report the average shares of voters who favor greater isolationism, stability or engagement in U.S. foreign policy across three thematic issue areas
Isolationism vs. Engagement: Select Index Components
Shares of voters who think the United States should increase its involvement in the affairs of other countries
Shares of voters who think the U.S. government should increase the deployment of troops overseas
Shares of voters who think the United States should increase tariffs on foreign-made goods
MULTILATERALISM VS. UNILATERALISM
Series report the average shares of voters who favor multilateralism, stability or unilateralism in U.S. foreign policy, measured across three thematic issue areas
Multilateralism vs. Unilateralism: Select Index Components
Shares of voters who think the United States should increase its involvement in international organizations like the United Nations
Shares of voters who think the United States should increase its efforts to resolve military disputes involving itself and other countries by coordinating a response with its allies instead of going it alone
Shares of voters who think the United States should increase its efforts to address economic disputes involving itself and other countries by coordinating a response with its allies instead of going it alone
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Methodology
The U.S. Foreign Policy Tracker relies on data collected through Morning Consult’s proprietary survey research capabilities. Interviews are conducted online.
All data featured in the tracker derives from surveys conducted among representative samples of roughly 2,000 registered voters each, with unweighted margins of error of +/-2 percentage points. Data are weighted to approximate representative samples of U.S. voters.
Dates indicated in all charts correspond to the last day of survey fielding for each wave. Surveys were conducted weekly through Nov. 6, 2022, and monthly thereafter.
About Morning Consult
Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. The company pairs its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act. Learn more at morningconsult.com.
About the author
Jason I. McMann leads geopolitical risk analysis at Morning Consult. He leverages the company’s high-frequency survey data to advise clients on how to integrate geopolitical risk into their decision-making. Jason previously served as head of analytics at GeoQuant (now part of Fitch Solutions). He holds a Ph.D. from Princeton University’s politics department.
Email press@morningconsult.com to speak with a member of Morning Consult’s Geopolitical Risk Analysis team about the U.S. Foreign Policy Tracker.