Armed conflict breaks out in Sudan: The world watched in horror this week as the Sudanese Army clashed with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in Khartoum and other major cities, wiping away the fragile peace in one of the world’s most war-torn countries.
The images are horrific: Corpses of civilians shot down in the streets lay unattended for days as repeated calls for ceasefires fail. People scramble by the remains of their neighbors and loved ones as they use brief lulls in the combat to seek food, water and safer shelter. Fires and explosions rip across neighborhoods while the smoking wreckage of aircraft on the tarmac of Khartoum’s international airport block the fastest avenue for aid delivery and evacuations.
What we are watching: Will the violence spiral into a regional conflict?
Already, the Egyptian military and the militia that controls eastern Libya are believed to be backing opposite sides, and Chad captured Sudanese troops who had strayed into its territory earlier in the week. Sudan also abuts the Tigray region of Ethiopia, where fighting has only recently ended after a brutal civil war. Meanwhile, ethnic and religious tensions that led to the independence of South Sudan in 2011 have never been resolved.
Kenya, increasingly the pillar of regional stability, has called on both factions to halt fighting and admit aid from the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development, a body backed by a bloc of East African countries. However, Nairobi’s resources are stretched quite thin as it leads peacekeeping missions in Congo and Somalia, while also facing bellicose threats from the man expected to rule Uganda soon.
Russia’s Wagner Group mercenaries have also reportedly offered weaponry to the Rapid Support Forces. Wagner has a significant footprint in Africa as part of a strategy to cleave U.S. and Western European partnerships with local governments, perhaps best exemplified in Mali.
As for the White House’s response, few good options come to light. The situation is in fact so chaotic that even as it stages troops in Djibouti to potentially evacuate the embassy in Sudan, the Pentagon is warning any such mission will be very dangerous. The United States is trying to organize a response alongside Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, but it’s an uncomfortable coalition as they have historically backed opposing sides.
We’ll keep our eye on whether any regional or global powers find a way to put pressure on the warring factions, but each day that passes without de-escalation makes a quick end to violence less likely.
Yoon arrives for state visit in Washington: South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol will touch down in the United States tomorrow ahead of a summit with U.S. President Joe Biden and a state dinner on Wednesday. Yoon is the first South Korean leader in over a decade to be honored with a full state visit, and it’s just the second state dinner Biden has ever hosted. Quite a gesture, but Yoon could use a good photo op: three-quarters of South Koreans now say they disapprove of his job performance.
What we are watching: Can Biden help Yoon survive vicious criticism at home as he attempts to get closer with Japan and the United States?
I’ll have a deep dive about this for you this week ahead of the summit, but the short version is this: Yoon is suffering from perceptions of weakness as he pursues rapprochement, having made crucial but emotionally poignant concessions to Tokyo on historical issues as a sine qua non of the project. Biden could do much to moot those criticisms by sending Yoon home with something to show for his efforts: a commitment for more intelligence sharing with the United States or participation in American-led multilateral projects like the Quad or AUKUS, for example.
And Yoon isn’t showing up empty-handed. He’s sitting on top of some of the world’s largest stockpiles of artillery ammunition and the facilities to produce them en masse, which Biden would very much like to put to use arming Ukraine. Yoon signaled he’s open to the possibility, setting an almost risibly low bar of Russian attacks against civilians when explaining his position on the proposition recently.
We’ll keep you up to date on this crucial intersection of America’s interests in Europe and Asia, and Seoul’s rapidly evolving relationship with Tokyo.
Chile announces plan to bring state into lithium industry: Chilean President Gabriel Boric announced plans to bring the country’s lithium industry under state control, joining the trend of resource nationalism among mineral-producing companies.
What we are watching: Will the shift hurt future investment in Latin America’s most dynamic economy?
Chile is in a commanding position with regard to the lithium market, with the world’s largest reserves, an extremely well-developed mining sector and a wide pool of talented engineers. Lithium is a crucial material for crafting batteries in electric vehicles and home energy storage applications, and Santiago hopes that its moves will reserve more of the country’s vast mineral wealth for public benefit.
Boric came to power on the backs of Chileans who feel left behind by the economic boom fueled by, in large part, Chinese consumption of Chile’s high-grade and plentiful copper. He has struggled to deliver for them, failing to pass a radical constitutional reform last year or control high inflation squeezing those on the precarious edge of the middle class.
Historically, Chile has been able to portray itself as a bastion of social and political stability in the region with business friendly environments for multinational corporations. The first element of that pitch, stability, has been in serious doubt since the so-called social outburst of 2019 that launched the ongoing constitutional reform process. Violence is on the rise among newly arrived drug gangs in urban areas, far-right anti-immigrant groups, and in Araucanía, where the centuries-old conflict with the indigenous Mapuche nation has once again flared.
Now to be clear, Boric’s policy is not radically different from that of centrist former President Eduardo Frei Montalva, and there has been state involvement in the mining sector for decades. Even Pinochet didn’t privatize the state copper company. But combined with increasing instability, such moves could damage Chile’s reputation as a good place to make the kind of expensive long-term investments required for major mines.
A senior mining executive with two decades of experience in South America told me that existing projects in Chile will continue regardless of the government’s changes as those investments are too deep in their life cycles to change course now. However, for new mines, which can take a decade or longer to turn a profit, financiers need considerable assurance of return on the heavy up-front investments. We will be keeping a careful eye on Chile in our coverage of the green economy transition.
